The Day After: Automotive News Has Complete Coverage Of The New Chrysler

[Masospaghetti]

From article about "Big Profits":

By 2014, the number of Chrysler vehicles sold annually will more than double, from a projected 1.3 million this year to 2.8 million, Palmer said. U.S. sales will see a similar jump, from about 950,000 to 2 million , he said.

The company had routinely topped that mark until last year, when sales plunged 30 percent. This year's volume has fallen 39 percent.

The forecast assumes a 13 percent share of U.S. sales and 500,000 vehicles sold outside the United States.

Through October of this year, Chrysler accounted for 9 percent of U.S. sales, after 22 consecutive months of decline.

I see multiple problems here. For one, they forecast that Chrysler sales will MORE THAN DOUBLE in the next five years - I find this a ridiculous assumption that is not attainable. Also, They have had 22 months of straight decline in market share, and sit at 9% of the market - and they assume to be at 13% in five years? Give me a break.

If they somehow manage to do it, more power to them and i'll happily eat my words. I just don't think it will happen.

Their math also assumes a US market of almost 16 million vehicles annually, which seems high to me.

[62Lincoln]

Originally Posted by Masospaghetti

From article about "Big Profits":


I see multiple problems here. For one, they forecast that Chrysler sales will MORE THAN DOUBLE in the next five years - I find this a ridiculous assumption that is not attainable. Also, They have had 22 months of straight decline in market share, and sit at 9% of the market - and they assume to be at 13% in five years? Give me a break.

If they somehow manage to do it, more power to them and i'll happily eat my words. I just don't think it will happen.

Their math also assumes a US market of almost 16 million vehicles annually, which seems high to me.

Exactly right. The U.S. market won't be 16 million vehicles for probably 5 years.

Regarding their market share assumption, implicit to the assumption is that they will be taking that additional market share from a competitor. Who will it be?

GM? No way.
Ford? No.
Toyota? Not likely.
Honda? No.
Hyundai? No.

They are delusional with these projections. It would be much more credible if their goal was to stop the ongoing loss of market share, and then slowly rebuild share from there. As it stands, they sound as crazy as VW, who expect to sale a million vehicles in the U.S. within 5 years or so.

[mkwelbornjr]

It seems they are dropping Caravan in favor of Town and Country. Aren't their loyal fans of Caravan who have it in their minds that Town and Country is too high end for them???

[44 mpg by 2010]

Originally Posted by 62Lincoln

Exactly right. The U.S. market won't be 16 million vehicles for probably 5 years.

Regarding their market share assumption, implicit to the assumption is that they will be taking that additional market share from a competitor. Who will it be?

GM? No way.
Ford? No.
Toyota? Not likely.
Honda? No.
Hyundai? No.

They are delusional with these projections. It would be much more credible if their goal was to stop the ongoing loss of market share, and then slowly rebuild share from there. As it stands, they sound as crazy as VW, who expect to sale a million vehicles in the U.S. within 5 years or so.

Just suppose that Chrysler-Fiat figure out how to QUICKLY bring small displacement (2 liters or less) Euro type turbo diesels to the US and successfully "bump" most of their product line fuel economies into the ABOVE 45 mpg combined average range with attractive affordable product.

What then?

That is a market segment that Ford and GM US have not participated in so far ... and the high priced Volt appears to be the only potential new entery.

So, who/what would be their competition ... the Prius?

Could that EXPAND the market by openning this "new" ABOVE 45 mpg combined average market segment?

I think it could!! Maybe even 6 million units worth per year after 2 or 3 years ....

If there was no other competition ... by definition that would be a 30% market share on top of what they already have! 37%???

JMO ...

[Chaz_23]

You can check out the slides of the presentations over at the Chrsyler site.
I like the emphasis on quality. Although it relies on FIAT for that, and I've never heard that FIAT or any other European carmaker stood for quality. We'll see.
It's also a good idea to cut the rebadging. They are going to be present in a whole lot more segments than before instead of having lots of rebadges filling a couple of segments.
New Pentastar V6's power figures are underwhelming.

[Bravada]

Originally Posted by mkwelbornjr

It seems they are dropping Caravan in favor of Town and Country. Aren't their loyal fans of Caravan who have it in their minds that Town and Country is too high end for them???

Where did you get that? Actually, both minivans survive until 2014 with a mild refresh for the Caravan and more thorough for the T&C in Q4 2010, and a new generation planned for 2014. I would question the need for both minivans, actually, but if they can make the T&C upscale enough...

I wouldn't say the raving brand-obsessed fans are overly numerous in this segment, btw.

Although it relies on FIAT for that, and I've never heard that FIAT or any other European carmaker stood for quality.

If you want to IMPROVE your quality from junk, Fiat is the one to call. They still might have a lot to do on their own front, but the presentation neatly defines the hows and ifs.

Regarding their market share assumption, implicit to the assumption is that they will be taking that additional market share from a competitor. Who will it be?

GM? No way.
Ford? No.
Toyota? Not likely.
Honda? No.
Hyundai? No.

Chrysler is not present in quite a few segments plus some of their models in key segments are woefully underperforming. Just think how much better they could fare with COMPETITIVE midsize offerings. There is certainly a lot to take from Toyota and Honda here, especially the Camry is losing the lustre.

Furthermore, Chrysler is now caught in the midst of GC generation changeover, with the Journey being the only remaining 7-seating crossover they have. In the coming years, those will be joined by the new GC, a Dodge (Durango) and a Chrysler.

Add to that some actually desirable compacts for Chrysler and Dodge, three small cars and one city car (500) and suddenly there's a lot more that Chrysler could sell.

GM still has many weak and vulnerable products, there are many people buying rebates and low prices in lieu of products. Chrysler also made no secret of going after the fleet market, where everybody seems more than happy to drop business.

All in all - they have indeed hit the bottom, but from there there is only one way - up. Getting back to 13% by 2014 with a vastly better and significantly enlarged portfolio is rather conservative IMHO.

[Elvisuperman]

Just meaningless words at this point... talk is cheap.

[megeebee]

Originally Posted by Perian

Looks like there may indeed be a return to "The Big 3" sometime in the distant future.

The speed of some of the above changes is simply amazing. Can it be done?

Well, "Tre grande" anyway.

[ColoradoZQ8]

Originally Posted by 62Lincoln

Exactly right. The U.S. market won't be 16 million vehicles for probably 5 years.

Regarding their market share assumption, implicit to the assumption is that they will be taking that additional market share from a competitor. Who will it be?

GM? No way.
Ford? No.
Toyota? Not likely.
Honda? No.
Hyundai? No.

They are delusional with these projections. It would be much more credible if their goal was to stop the ongoing loss of market share, and then slowly rebuild share from there. As it stands, they sound as crazy as VW, who expect to sale a million vehicles in the U.S. within 5 years or so.

Delusional at 13% marketshare?
Chrysler has already been there -- at 16% a decade ago.

Good product = sales.

Everyone scoffed at Hyundai when they rolled out their 10 year warranty. Who is laughing now? Don't underestimate an energized Chrysler -- they have about 9% marketshare with a lousy lineup... Imagine what would happen if they had good products....

If they can get back their design mojo from the 1990s -- watch out.

GM will fail before Chrysler -- they are still operating under "business as usual." Chrysler has a radical and ambitious targets. Even if they don't hit 13% -- if they get to 12% marketshare its quite an improvement over the present standing.

[ColoradoZQ8]

Originally Posted by Chaz_23

New Pentastar V6's power figures are underwhelming.

Really?
Are there a lot of companies building twin-turbo V6's with 400 horsepower in
production cars right now?

Try re-reading the presentation -- because its fairly impressive overall.

[Novak454]

I'm hoping the quality and design of the Jeep brand (Wrangler) can be progressed significantly without sacrificing its character... fingers crossed....

[vonboogie]

what i dont get is why create a brand with Dodge called RAM? Why not save money and just move the Dodge trucks to Jeep? Jeep is an estblished brand and they had trucks before also. Are they Fiat planning something? Are they going to sell Dodge Trucks to someone or even sell Jeep off? Something stinks here....

[eaton53]

Good luck to them. They have a lot of work to do.

If they can get back their design mojo from the 1990s -- watch out.

Italians are good at styling... I expect great designs from them.
If they have a downfall it'll be in reliability. They have to convince customers that they're getting a high quality product.

[WWI Flying Ace]

Originally Posted by Bravada

I wouldn't say the raving brand-obsessed fans are overly numerous in this segment, btw.

[62Lincoln]

Originally Posted by ColoradoZQ8

Delusional at 13% marketshare?
Chrysler has already been there -- at 16% a decade ago.

And GM was at 28% market share a decade ago. Is anyone expecting GM to return to those levels? Of course not. 13% is delusional thinking.