Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

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Thread: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

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    GMI Australia Correspondent Premium Member mikmak's Avatar
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    Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Swings & Roundabouts

    I didn't put this in news because it's just analysis and commentary based on modelling...

    Mick McWilliams
    @LoflytKULTURE
    (twitter and Instagram)


    So 2016 is over, and what a kick in the teeth it was. Volkswagen copped the first blundstone to the cake hole for telling porky pies. Theyíre still licking their wounds and have been ordered to pay out a whopping $19 billion AUD settlement in the US alone. Investigations are on going and many heads have rolled.

    The biggest kick in the teeth locally was the closures of both the Holden engine plant at Fishermans Bend and the end of Ford manufacturing in Australia. This year we waved good bye to an Australian icon....




    Itís dark times for the Australian industry, but it is unlikely that Ford sees it that way. On the back of strong sales of the Australian designed and Thai built Ranger, Ford has turned the sales tide which had seen them drop around 7000 sales in each of the previous 2 years.

    According to the LOFLYT Calculatron, Ford will stack on a mammoth 10,000 sales over their 2015 result. In a vote of confidence in Ford Australiaís design capability, $500 million has been injected into Broadmeadows to ensure its position as one of only three global engineering centres is maintained.

    Itís up and up for the Blue Oval. Now that they are free to advertise the Mondeo, this will be their greatest test yet. Can the Euro sourced FWD offering take the place of the Falcon? Even half a slice of the Camry pie would be most welcome.

    The results of the Top Ten brands hold few surprises. The extensive support and dealer network continues to pay dividends for Toyota Australia, who don't make leaps and bounds, but manage to maintain position in a fragmenting market. Mazda continue to impress with their SUV offerings. This years CX-3 debut was another outstanding contributor to the Zoom-Zoom portfolio.

    The top ten Brands in Australia look like this:
    Toyota
    Mazda
    Hyundai
    Holden
    Ford
    Mitsubishi
    Nissan
    Volkswagen
    Subaru
    Kia

    Thatís a big kudos to Kia breaking into the top ten for the first time. Tail end charlie for the last three years, Honda improved on a dismal 2015, but failed to catch the hard charging and highly awarded Korean.
    Honda also finish behind 11th placed Mercedes-Benz, who continue what seems to be a never-ending assault of new and updated models (and segments).



    There arenít too many surprises, when it comes to most popular models either. Again, it's Toyota at the helm, with the Hilux and Corolla battling it out for the most sales in Australia. No doubt Toyota will trumpet the success in both breathes: most popular passenger car and most popular truck. (I have Hilux by around 600 sales).
    There were more Corollas put on Australian roads this year than Hondas (yes all of the Hondas).

    Short of a Christmas miracle, Hyundai i30 continues to kick the Mazda 3 around despite this generation of the South Korean having been on the market longer than its Japanese competitor. Coming home a strong third, the i30 continues to focus unpretentiously on solid value for money, and delivers on that promise with a wide range of options to their bread and butter compact.



    Ford Australias brightest star, the Ranger, is looking at a fourth place finish, breaking over 36,000 sales for 2016. Highlighting the importance of the utility, if you remove Ranger volume, Ford Australia would be battling with Subaru for eighth place.

    Mazda 3 may yet pip the Ranger at the post, but itís been struggling internally against the rise of the CX-3 compact SUV.

    The Commodore continues to post consistently higher than the Mazda CX-5 but in the end there could be less than 1000 sales difference between the two. Had the CX-5 won, it would be the first time an SUV has beaten the last remaining big local.

    So thatís it, according to the Loflyt Calculatron. 1-2% growth for most of the top ten brands, double digit growth for Ford and Kia, with Holden and Volkswagen the biggest losers dropping 8% and 6% respectively.
    Of the top ten brands, only Hyundai, Kia and Subaru manage to feature in the Australian market month after month without a light commercial vehicle/truck/ute.

    As the mining industry dwindles further, will the new year tell a different story?

    Holden will cease production at the end of the year so can their new SUV line up arrive in time to keep them in the top 5?

    Will the debut of the next generation i30 push Hyundai past Mazda into the second slot?

    So many questions and so many reasons to watch 2017 unfold.

    Here's the numbers: LoflytCALCULATRON

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Ford Australias brightest star, the Ranger, is looking at a fourth place finish, breaking over 36,000 sales for 2016. Highlighting the importance of the utility, if you remove Ranger volume, Ford Australia would be battling with Subaru for eighth place.
    We're looking at this the wrong way around.
    Ford has transitioned a lot of its buyers to Ranger and away from Falcon which has now ended,
    it's concerning that same transition to Colorado is not happening over at Holden.......

    NG Commodore better be the sales success GM hopes or Holden risks slipping below Ford's sales..

    Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo are not hitting their marks, think they're either seen as old or overpriced
    compared to the competition.

    Renaming Kuga as Escape is undoing a big mistake, another would be changing Mondeo name to Fusion,
    "Mondeo' sounds like a medcal condition, why does it take Ford marketing so long to see the obvious..
    Last edited by jpd80; 01-02-2017 at 05:49 PM.

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    We're looking at this the wrong way around.
    Ford has transitioned a lot of its buyers to Ranger and away from Falcon which has now ended,
    it's concerning that same transition to Colorado is not happening over at Holden.......

    NG Commodore better be the sales success GM hopes or Holden risks slipping below Ford's sales..

    Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo are not hitting their marks, think they're either seen as old or overpriced
    compared to the competition.

    Renaming Kuga as Escape is undoing a big mistake, another would be changing Mondeo name to Fusion,
    "Mondeo' sounds like a medcal condition, why does it take Ford marketing so long to see the obvious..
    The Mondeo is touted by Ford Europe as meaning "world car" - clearly doesn't work does it. Fusion in Europe would be confusing as that was used for a mini-MPV version of the Fiesta - which evolved into the EcoSport.

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    I'm not talking about changing Mondeo in Europe, simply adopting American names for Australian market,
    names that work, not some crappy Esperento name that is a turn off to those buyers

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    I'm not talking about changing Mondeo in Europe, simply adopting American names for Australian market,
    names that work, not some crappy Esperento name that is a turn off to those buyers
    My personal opinion is that all car makers should use the one name globally if it's the same car - but that does mean they have to work harder to find names that aren't silly in some places or mean different things in different languages/cultures - I don't mean they should be the same where the metal is different, so Astra/Cruze/Verano is fine but Insignia GS / Commodore NG isn't.

    I've never got my head around diferent makers using the same name in different parts of the world - in Europe a Sierra is the Ford predecessor of the Mondeo/Fusion but in North America a Sierra is a GMC truck.

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Ruperts Trooper View Post
    I've never got my head around diferent makers using the same name in different parts of the world - in Europe a Sierra is the Ford predecessor of the Mondeo/Fusion but in North America a Sierra is a GMC truck.
    The name Sierra was trade market by GM in Nth America, there was an earlier car (?) Buick Ciera
    that sounded too close to Sierra for Ford to use that name in the US so it was forced to Use the
    Mercur name instead.

    Ford originally wanted to use the "Futura" name for Fusion in Nth America but had let the trade mark lapse
    and Pep Boys were using it so they had to use Fusion...

    For many years Ford Australia had sold the Mazda based Telstar, the moment they went to Mondeo,
    sales dropped and never recovered. the bad name of the MK 1 Mondeo preceeded the later generations.
    Last edited by jpd80; 01-03-2017 at 02:58 AM.

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    GMI Australia Correspondent Premium Member mikmak's Avatar
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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    We're looking at this the wrong way around.
    Ford has transitioned a lot of its buyers to Ranger and away from Falcon which has now ended,
    it's concerning that same transition to Colorado is not happening over at Holden.......

    NG Commodore better be the sales success GM hopes or Holden risks slipping below Ford's sales..

    Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo are not hitting their marks, think they're either seen as old or overpriced
    compared to the competition.

    Renaming Kuga as Escape is undoing a big mistake, another would be changing Mondeo name to Fusion,
    "Mondeo' sounds like a medcal condition, why does it take Ford marketing so long to see the obvious..
    Ford definitely need some new metal and the Mondeo name for me says expensive euro fleet queen. Mainly because I see them predominantly carrying boxes for sales reps. That's not an entirely bad thing (they have to move metal afterall) but they have no presence outside that part of the market. The new ad shows a fashion type approach which is what they need to push if they're actually going to sell any.

    Escape was definitely a good move. Kuga is just odd.

    As far as Holdens transition to Colorado not happening, I think we'll see more sales coming more from the Acadia and Captiva (nee Equinox) to help them maintain a top 5 finish.

    Acadia will compete with Everest (despite its non-offroad capability) and IMO will help Holden steal a lot of traffic.
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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Holden sell more private buyers with Colorado due to its cheaper pricing

    LTZ is very good value

    Ford and Toyota chase single cab and bare bones fleet market with Ranger and Hilux


    Not a bad thing but thats where all the volume is
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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by VS Ute 5Litre View Post
    Holden sell more private buyers with Colorado due to its cheaper pricing

    LTZ is very good value

    Ford and Toyota chase single cab and bare bones fleet market with Ranger and Hilux


    Not a bad thing but thats where all the volume is
    While that's part of it, the big story is in the volume of 4x4 crew cabs sold,
    absolutely staggering in both amounts and price paid.....

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by mikmak View Post
    Ford definitely need some new metal and the Mondeo name for me says expensive euro fleet queen. Mainly because I see them predominantly carrying boxes for sales reps. That's not an entirely bad thing (they have to move metal afterall) but they have no presence outside that part of the market. The new ad shows a fashion type approach which is what they need to push if they're actually going to sell any.

    Escape was definitely a good move. Kuga is just odd.

    As far as Holdens transition to Colorado not happening, I think we'll see more sales coming more from the Acadia and Captiva (nee Equinox) to help them maintain a top 5 finish.

    Acadia will compete with Everest (despite its non-offroad capability) and IMO will help Holden steal a lot of traffic.
    The magic words here are Arcadia and new Equinox... please don't let them use Captiva name
    Arcadia is Holden's territory/Kluger and wll go a long way towards a great 1-2 punch with Colorado 7

    When I look at those vehicles, it gives me real hope that Holden is so more than just an Opel rebadge..

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by jpd80 View Post
    While that's part of it, the big story is in the volume of 4x4 crew cabs sold,
    absolutely staggering in both amounts and price paid.....
    Yeah the 4x4 crew cabs are the basic ones though


    I should have made it clearer in my post but Ford and Toyota have a huge slice of the fleet market for these vehicle s while Mitsubishi , Nissan and Holden fight it out for private buyers

    So far reaction to the 2017 Colorado has been positive lets see how the market reacts over the next 6-12 months
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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    2017 Colorado is too expensive. In recent months both Toyota and Ford have dropped the prices of their equivalent models in order to capture further market share and push out Colorado. Sales have dropped dramatically since the 2016 models have runout and we're not getting any sort of traction with the 2017 yet. With the volume of stock hitting over the next few months I expect them to start chopping up the prices dramatically, but maybe not quite to the level we saw with MY16 Runout.

    Astra has been a basket case for them so far. It gets bagged out in the press big time for being too expensive and a good car, but not worth the extra coin. We haven't sold a single car and only had 1 test drive in over a month..... The volumes they're hoping to achieve with this car and the reality of it means that soon they'll be having to throw $3-4k per car our way, just to get any sort of volume out the door. It doesn't help that the market is flooded with Cruze, which they're currently throwing around $7,000 a unit at in order to try and clear them (and it's still not enough!).

    Cruze, Captiva, Caprice, Ute and Malibu are all dead names. The line up will consist of the following:

    Spark (a good car, but too expensive).
    Barina (terrible drivetrain choices and just too plain, really showing its age, despite being just facelifted).
    Astra Hatch (too expensive, missing a few features at certain levels).
    Astra Sedan (will soon see how this goes, but only has the 1.4 Turbo, so all the old Cruze SRi/SRi-V buyers will have to buy a hatch or a Hyundai SR/Honda VTi-L).
    Commodore (will go well in Runout, despite there not being enough build). Volume will drop dramatically one the MY18 comes.
    Trax (a boring car, sells on price alone, looked 5 years old when they launched it). Facelift model due this month, will be interesting to see if that helps it's cause, but I can't see it myself, it won't be long before this is pricepointed just about $20k as well.
    Captiva (good value, the current facelift really improved it, especially the LTZ). Will continue to sell on price alone, dead after this year. They're always keen to discount these, they must owe them next to nothing!
    Trailblazer (too dear. Sold well under $50k, but the new model is still not there interior wise. Needs to be priced in the mid $40's to sell decent volume).
    Equinox (due third quarter. Looks good on paper, needs to drive well and be priced attractively to get volume).
    Acadia (haven't seen any details, nothing even ordered yet. Will need fight it out against Pathfinder at the lower end of this segment, needs to be priced accordingly).

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    What do you think of the Captiva reliability wise timandhayley? I get a lot of negative comments from people about oil leaks, but they're anecdotal more than anything. I really wanted to like the 3.0V6 but the front seats are not suited to my body shape. I do love a normally aspirated 6 though.

    I actually liked barging around in the diesel FWD LS even with the (older) outdated interior.
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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by timandhayley View Post
    2017 Colorado is too expensive]. In recent months both Toyota and Ford have dropped the prices of their equivalent models in order to capture further market share and push out Colorado. Sales have dropped dramatically since the 2016 models have runout and we're not getting any sort of traction with the 2017 yet. With the volume of stock hitting over the next few months I expect them to start chopping up the prices dramatically, but maybe not quite to the level we saw with MY16 Runout.
    .
    I think "chopped up" is the operative word, Toyota and Ford seem to be in the throws
    of a real slug fest over Hilux versus Ranger with unfortunate casualties on the side lines.

    Always good to see Ford sticking it to Toyota, maybe that will empower them to do more..

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    Re: Australian Sales Results Modelling for 2016

    Captiva is fine, my wife has one, done 18,000kms now and no issues. My 2 brother's have them as well, no issues with either of them, both petrol. There are a batch of 2013-2015 diesels that do have leaking timing cover seals and that's where the oil leak issues come from. You're right about the seats being horrible, they just have no shape and make for a sore back after a long trip. I find it hard to get comfortable in there, but she just uses it around town and if we go on a holiday somewhere we always take my car anyway. The V6 is really quite reliable in the Captiva, along with the 2.4 Petrol, the Diesel you never really know what you're going to get.

    The pickup market seems to have separated into 2 different streams of buyers - those that have/want to spend the money to get the best car possible (usually Ranger, Hilux, Amarok, Colorado, BT-50) and those that just want a 4x4 ute at any cost, not really caring about anything other than price (DMax, Navara, Triton, Foton, etc). Colorado doesn't have the reputation that Ranger and Hilux have, so it's going to take a few years in the market before they can try and command a premium price. They need to try and get cars out on the road and then try and lift prices slowly, rather than the other way around.

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