Time for Toyota to Drop HSD Hybrids?? - Lexus Flagship LS600h and GS450h?

[AMERICA 123]

Look at the sales trends.

Look at the volumes.

Consider the market and fuel prices for 2008 YTD.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008...-sal.html#more

http://bioage.typepad.com/photos/unc...20080601_2.png

3 July 2008

Reported US Sales of Hybrids Down 27% in June; Share of New Vehicle Sales Down to 2.1%

Reported US sales of hybrids took a 27% dive in June 2008 to 24,917 units from 34,300 units in June 2007 as Toyota continued to struggle with limited availability of the Prius.

The Prius sold 11,765 units in June 2008, down 34% from June 2007. June 2008 had 24 selling days, compared to 27 in June 2007.

Total light-duty vehicle sales in the US dropped 18.3% by volume in June to 1,189,108 units, according to Autodata, with sales of passenger cars dropping 7.9% and sales of light trucks dropping 28.4%. Reported hybrid sales represent 2.1% of new vehicle sales for the month.

Toyota.

In addition to the Prius results, Toyota reported a 45% drop in sales by volume of the Camry hybrid year-on-year, with 3,054 units sold in June 2008, representing 7.3% of all Camrys sold.

Total Camry sales were down 11% by volume in June 2008, although up .3% on a day sales rate basis.

The Highlander Hybrid posted 1,511 units, a 37% drop year-on-year, representing 22% of all Highlanders sold.

The Lexus Rx 400h sold 1,330 units, a 15% drop, representing 22.9% of all Rx models sold in the month.

The GS 450h sold 73 units, a 44% drop, representing 6% of all GS models.

The top-end LS 600h also sold 73 units, representing 4.8% of all LS models.

[vsd]

Go to any Toyota dealer and find one sitting on a dealer lot...o wait, you won't, because all the hybrids are sold out, and there's an ever growing wait list to get one. The only reason sales are down is because Toyota can't make them fast enough, and a lingering battery shortage.

[Stéphane Dumas]

or they should go instead of the way of the "mild-hybrid"/two-mode hybrid

I spotted this one at AutoblogGreen
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07...n-1-149-in-ju/

With five hybrid models on the market now and at least four more coming before the end of the year, General Motors' hybrid sales are looking less ugly than they did in the first three months of 2008. GM is still no threat to Toyota or even Ford, but sales have been steady (if slow) for the last couple of months. For the first time in their monthly sales report for June, GM has explicitly said how many hybrids were sold. Amidst truck sales that were down 39 percent compared to June 2007, GM declared that it sold 1,149 hybrids in June for a total of 4,376 during the first half of the year.

Out of that total, the Tahoe and Yukon Two-mode hybrids accounted for 547 sales, with the Malibu and Vue mild hybrids taking 295 and 277 respectively. A grand total of thirty buyers opted for the Saturn Aura hybrid. The last time that hybrid sales were mentioned for April, about the same number of Two-mode and mild hybrid models were sold. So far, in a market where hybrids are flying off the lots of most dealers who offer them, GM's pricey two-mode trucks and tepid mild hybrids have been also rans. It will be interesting to watch and see if the significantly cheaper Chrysler hybrid SUVs can draw more interest when they appear at dealers this summer followed by the smaller Saturn Vue Two-mode later this fall.

[Mr. Burns]

For them Hybrid Synergy Drive has been more than worth it and continues to be, if for the image alone.

[AMERICA 123]

Originally Posted by Stéphane Dumas

or they should go instead of the way of the "mild-hybrid"/two-mode hybrid

I spotted this one at AutoblogGreen
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/07...n-1-149-in-ju/

Gm's hybrid sales very likely prevented the hybrid 'group' from being a headline for largest JUNE 2008 failure - position # 1 - 3 given what's happening at all the rest - especially Toyota.

[AMERICA 123]

Originally Posted by vsd

Go to any Toyota dealer and find one sitting on a dealer lot...o wait, you won't, because all the hybrids are sold out, and there's an ever growing wait list to get one. The only reason sales are down is because Toyota can't make them fast enough, and a lingering battery shortage.

OK, so let's just postulate that there is unmet demand for Toyota hybrid product.

Looking below, are you saying this is just a massive failure at the Toyota Corporate level?

For JUNE 2007 here is what Toyota said in their JUNE sales press release

TMS Hybrids < all numbers dsr% adjusted in this quote only>


TMS first-half hybrid sales totaled 146,536 units, an increase of 69 percent over the same period last year.

In June, TMS posted sales of 27,382 hybrid vehicles, up 46 percent over last June.

Toyota Division posted sales of 25,689 hybrids, up 48 percent over the same period last year.

Lexus Division posted sales of 1,693 hybrids, an increase of 15 percent over last June.

Here is the same for JUNE 2008'S results and press release.

TMS Hybrids


TMS first-half hybrid sales totaled 145,159 units.

In June, TMS posted sales of 17,806 hybrid vehicles.

Toyota Division posted sales of 16,330 hybrids for the month.

Lexus Division posted sales of 1,476 hybrids in June.

So, some other numbers.

Toyota and Lexus HSD sales are down -9,576 ie -34.97% - (June 2008 vs. June 2007) with fuel at or over a national average of 4.00$/gallon for the

month of June.......and industry sales down -18.3% when measured the same way.

Also worth noting since a significant majority of Toyota Lexus HSD product ( 2/3s each ) is an automobile and that the 'number' for the industry in June 2008 is only - 7.3% for autos only. This is all the more significant when one considers how many have been traditionally the Prius, and the Prius/Camry hybrid.

Heck, HSD is below the entire Truck/SUV segment performance of -28.4%

[vsd]

June 2007 was a completely different time than June 2008. In June 2007, you could go to a Toyota lot and find a sizable selection of Priuses, in June 2008 the best you can hope for is a Brochure and your name on a list. The reason is indeed poor product planning at the corporate level. This can explain the problem better than I can. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/...ess/hybrid.php and http://www.hybridcars.com/decision/r...ting-list.html

[mbukukanyau]

That said, It should be noted that GM has not had supply on new hybrids until about a month ago, due to replacement of old batteries in prior hybrids sold.
By the end of the year, GM will be selling alot more hybrids

[AMERICA 123]

Originally Posted by vsd

The reason is indeed poor product planning at the corporate level. This can explain the problem better than I can. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/...ess/hybrid.php and http://www.hybridcars.com/decision/r...ting-list.html

See, the thing is, assuming an almost unbelievably high factor for 'Corporate screw up/ battery production reduction' and market redirection as well, if you 'run' the numbers - you can not get to what's being reported as the actual results.

Just take that -34.97% - you can 'account' for at most, maybe 1/2 of it to -20.0% - and that's using a real shaky bunch of assumptions.

There has to be more to this story - a lot more.

[AMERICA 123]

Originally Posted by Stéphane Dumas

or they should go instead of the way of the "mild-hybrid"/two-mode hybrid

You know, that could be a way 'to spread the wealth' or really 'spread the shortages' - ie make more out of a limited supply of anything from batteries to magnets.....

[GMusa]

limited availability of the Prius?? Here in my home town the Toyota lots are full of Prius'!

[Robert Ryan]

That said, It should be noted that GM has not had supply on new hybrids until about a month ago, due to replacement of old batteries in prior hybrids sold.
By the end of the year, GM will be selling alot more hybrids

Nice to look forward to poor quality batteries and also very expensive to replace. Come on Volt. Hybrids are more polluting and more of a gas guzzler than a very clean diesel and they cost more as well.

[john1701a]

June sales:

11,765 = Prius
3,054 = Camry-Hybrid
1,511 = Highlander-Hybrid
1,330 = RX-400h

547 = Tahoe-Hybrid & Yukon-Hybrid
295 = Malibu-Hybrid
30 = Aura-Hybrid
277 = Vue-Hybrid

The entire market is struggling due to battery shortages. Yet, Toyota was able to sell 73 of both their high-end Lexus hybrids anyway. So, what's the problem?

.

[jzchev28]

anytime there is bad news for toyo it cheers me up

[mbukukanyau]

Here is inventory for 1 dealer as of now. There is no shortage. 4th of July weekend. I did a search for my zip code, 92124 at toyota.com and there is over 35 vehicles just by toyota, within 20 miles, and that does not include lexus or 50 miles, just two dealers.

or does someone want to tell me, that these are new deliveries or returns?