What is the plan at Buick?

[Bravada]

1. The new LaX, judging by the dimensions unofficially acquired from Chinese sources, will probably qualify as fullsize. Expect it to become effectively BOTH LaCrosse's AND Lucerne's replacement.

2. Having said which, the Lucerne sales are still strong, so expect the vehicle to linger on for at least a while, especially in V8 form.

3. The Regal will take over as midsize sedan

4. There is no immediate need for Buick to offer smaller cars for younger people, IMHO. Buick can be an aspirational brand by NOT reaching out to everybody, not the other way around. People still want e.g. Jaguar and buy them when they become affluent enough even if there are no compact Jags at Civic prices.

5. The Buick Excelle in China will probably be the Chevrolet Cruze. The new Astra will probably not come as sedan, at least initially. There is a slight probability the new Astra would come as Buick to the US, but I think it will come as either Pontiac or Saturn.

[megeebee]

Originally Posted by Bravada

1. The new LaX, judging by the dimensions unofficially acquired from Chinese sources, will probably qualify as fullsize. Expect it to become effectively BOTH LaCrosse's AND Lucerne's replacement.

2. Having said which, the Lucerne sales are still strong, so expect the vehicle to linger on for at least a while, especially in V8 form.

3. The Regal will take over as midsize sedan

4. There is no immediate need for Buick to offer smaller cars for younger people, IMHO. Buick can be an aspirational brand by NOT reaching out to everybody, not the other way around. People still want e.g. Jaguar and buy them when they become affluent enough even if there are no compact Jags at Civic prices.

Thank you.

I don't know just where this absurd notion that all auto brands everywhere must produce something for young people came from.

As for Lucerne, how are sales still good? I suspect the majority now go to fleets anyway. The plant that builds it is being used for the Volt by November 2010. It will have to be extensively remodeled, so it will most likely close at least 9 months before. There is no other plant designated to take up DTS/Lucerne production. I doubt GM would spend the millons required to continue the old-girls and their ever declining sales numbers, so I would say a short 5-6 month 2010 model year will be their last.

[Bravada]

The plant that builds it is being used to build the Volt by November 2010

Lucerne sold 50K YTD (as of Nov), which is almost as much as the CTS and significantly more than the (cheaper) LaX. The Lu and DTS combined have lost 30-40% sales compared to last year, which is 47,000. I doubt it, however, that Volt would sell even that much - I guess Hamtramck needs both products for some time just to keep going.

I doubt GM would spend the millons required to continue the old-girls and their ever declining sales numbers

GM spent a few dimes on the new grille for the Lu and gets plenty of bucks back from the tired G-body. Just like Panthers, I expect them to continue indefinitely until the customer base dies off.

[nsap]

Originally Posted by Bravada

Lucerne sold 50K YTD (as of Nov), which is almost as much as the CTS and significantly more than the (cheaper) LaX. The Lu and DTS combined have lost 30-40% sales compared to last year, which is 47,000. I doubt it, however, that Volt would sell even that much - I guess Hamtramck needs both products for some time just to keep going.

Production for the DTS and Lucerne is ending in late 2010.

[Bravada]

As of today, this can still be revised if GM feels so. How many times did Ford announce the end of the Panthers?

[nsap]

Originally Posted by Bravada

As of today, this can still be revised if GM feels so. How many times did Ford announce the end of the Panthers?

I highly doubt it unless future product plans for the Volt die (highly unlikely). The plant will have to idle for awhile for retooling.

[Sal Collaziano]

Originally Posted by Bravada

1. The new LaX, judging by the dimensions unofficially acquired from Chinese sources, will probably qualify as fullsize. Expect it to become effectively BOTH LaCrosse's AND Lucerne's replacement.

So that's sounding like the new Honda Accord. It's technically a full-size vehicle. Probably what they're planning on doing over at Cadillac with the STS/DTS replacement that comes along eventually. The first thing I think of is the failure over at Acura with their RL. It's big, but not big enough. When the Lucerne goes away, the LaCrosse won't be an appropriate vehicle to take over the full-size duties (in my opinion). I think GM will figure this out too late.

Originally Posted by Bravada

4. There is no immediate need for Buick to offer smaller cars for younger people, IMHO. Buick can be an aspirational brand by NOT reaching out to everybody, not the other way around. People still want e.g. Jaguar and buy them when they become affluent enough even if there are no compact Jags at Civic prices.

I strongly disagree with this. You're comparing Jaguar to Buick. People aspire to own Jaguars - not Buicks. Buick needs a way to get younger people into their vehicles. Once they succeed in this area - and make vehicles as desirable as those like the XJ8, XK or XF, than people can aspire to own one. For now, they're going to have to settle with getting people into the showrooms with high quality, inexpensive vehicles.

Right now, Buick is no more special than Nissan, Honda or Toyota. So without an Altima, Civic or Corolla, they're making a big mistake. Even something to compete with the Genesis Coupe would be a great way to spark interest in Buick as a brand. How this need can be denied, I have no idea...

[Bravada]

When the Lucerne goes away, the LaCrosse won't be an appropriate vehicle to take over the full-size duties (in my opinion). I think GM will figure this out too late.

I think the full-fullsize vehicle market will die soon. The Lucerne is a small car compared to the behemots from even early 1980s, and still one of the largest cars in production globally. The LaX will be a truly large car. The Aura and Malibu are quite big compared to other modern midsizers (e.g. wheelbase is even longer than the Accord's), and this car is to be yet one size larger. I think it will do just fine.

I highly doubt it unless future product plans for the Volt die (highly unlikely). The plant will have to idle for awhile for retooling.

Is GM indeed going to idle AN ENTIRE PLANT for the Volt? It will be a very low-volume product, it's a waste of Hamtramck. Wilmington could pick it up, they're better in small-scale assembly (even if they didn't quite gather "assembly" too well yet judging by the panel alignment on Opel GTs).

I strongly disagree with this. You're comparing Jaguar to Buick. People aspire to own Jaguars - not Buicks. Buick needs a way to get younger people into their vehicles.

No. They need a way to get people to aspire to own Buicks. Insignia is a step in the right direction - the Enclave actually already is. By 2010, Buick should have a lineup of really appealing, aspirational vehicles. No need for a Buick Cobalt there.

[nsap]

Originally Posted by Bravada

Is GM indeed going to idle AN ENTIRE PLANT for the Volt? It will be a very low-volume product, it's a waste of Hamtramck. Wilmington could pick it up, they're better in small-scale assembly (even if they didn't quite gather "assembly" too well yet judging by the panel alignment on Opel GTs).

No. Detroit-Hamtramck is getting more products than just the Volt. All of which will require retooling.

[Sal Collaziano]

Originally Posted by Bravada

I think the full-fullsize vehicle market will die soon. The Lucerne is a small car compared to the behemots from even early 1980s, and still one of the largest cars in production globally. The LaX will be a truly large car. The Aura and Malibu are quite big compared to other modern midsizers (e.g. wheelbase is even longer than the Accord's), and this car is to be yet one size larger. I think it will do just fine.

I'm all for vehicles with full-size interior room and mid-size exterior dimensions. So that would be cool. In any event, I don't see the full-size segment dying. If anything, full-size SUVs will die. If full-size SUVs die AND full-size cars die, than people will again have to look outside the Big 3 for vehicles. The BMW 7-Series, Mercedes S-Class, Lexus LS, Audi A8 (etcetera) are not getting any smaller. Cars of this size are important for families who wish to cruise comfortably. Those who can't afford the top tier makes need other options - and that's where cars like the Lincoln Town Car, Cadillac DTS, Buick Lucerne (if people liked it) and others come in. The problem with why some of these cars are not selling is they're not desirable. Who desires to own a Mercury Grand Marquis? A Ford Crown Victoria? Big cars don't have to die - but Ford and GM are letting them.. The Chrysler 300 has helped...

Originally Posted by Bravada

No. They need a way to get people to aspire to own Buicks. Insignia is a step in the right direction - the Enclave actually already is. By 2010, Buick should have a lineup of really appealing, aspirational vehicles. No need for a Buick Cobalt there.

I don't want a Buick Cobalt either. But a Buick Cruze would do fine - or better yet - a Buick Genesis Coupe named GNX. Even Cadillac brought in the CTS - and look what it's done for the brand. It didn't cheapen it. It's the main reason for it's success... Buick doesn't need this? Obviously, top executives at GM agree with your point of view... But that's not saying a whole lot...

[Dr. Show-Me]

If the new LaCrosse can seat 5 adults comfortably, reliably, with an all wheel drive option, it can replace the Lucerne. But I'd rather see the Chinese Park Avenue produced here, if an awd option was part of it.To get the 20somethings, 30somethings and beyond, GM must come out with desirable cars, beautifully designed and executed, with a "Wow!" factor - then people will buy it.

[zete]

For Buick the plan should be to have a revamped lineup for next year. Thus:

• Buick Regal (Opel Insignia)
• Buick Lacrosse (Invicta)
• Buick Enclave
• Buick Lucerne

The Enclave is a couple of years old and the Lucerne is there so Buick has a large, v8 car. Other than that, the other two are new. Assuming those two new cars enjoy the type of attention the Enclave got then Buick should be able to come out with the following in 2011:

• Buick Rendezvous
• Buick Riviera (coupe version of Regal)

That would nicely round out Buick. And if Buick=Opel then the Vue (Antara) would become the Rendezvous. It's more cost effective to slap on new badges and grill than do a custom Theta for Buick, esp. considering GM's financial predicament.

The Riviera is doable, and cost effective assuming massive reuse of the Regal's parts. I assume that Epsilon II was designed to be a coupe, sedan, and wagon so this shouldn't be a huge issue.

[Sal Collaziano]

Maybe the Riviera can turn out to be the Genesis Coupe/Infiniti G37 car that Buick needs...

[Bravada]

If anything, full-size SUVs will die.

As of now, mid-size SUVs are dying. The Explorer and Tahoe posted much higher losses than the Tahoe or Excursion, who sell as if there was no crisis...

The Chrysler 300 has helped...

It has also taken a big hit. Expect all the current large cars to come back as smaller and nimbler. There is no need for extra 20 cms of overhang and a few hundred kilos of metal to move around. Having said which, I'd like a Buick WM.

But a Buick Cruze would do fine - or better yet - a Buick Genesis Coupe named GNX.

GNX???? You need to redefine "young"...

Cars of this size are important for families who wish to cruise comfortably.

Families buy SUVs. Cars like that are important for executives who need to manifest their ego. Don't get me wrong - I LOVE huge sedans and I hate the US guvmint for killing them by devising CAFE. But family needs are not what drives the sales of large luxury sedan.

Maybe the Riviera can turn out to be the Genesis Coupe/Infiniti G37 car that Buick needs...

How is this any more affordable or appealing to young people than the Regal? But then again - how do you define "young"?

[Michael_S]

Originally Posted by Bravada

4. There is no immediate need for Buick to offer smaller cars for younger people, IMHO. Buick can be an aspirational brand by NOT reaching out to everybody, not the other way around. People still want e.g. Jaguar and buy them when they become affluent enough even if there are no compact Jags at Civic prices.

I agree with Sal on this. If the Buick brand carried any weight in the US, Buick would not need entry level models. But Buick means nothing to most young people in the US. For long term survival, the brand needs something inexpensive but still damn sexy. They don't have it.

Originally Posted by Bravada

I think the full-fullsize vehicle market will die soon. The Lucerne is a small car compared to the behemots from even early 1980s, and still one of the largest cars in production globally. The LaX will be a truly large car. The Aura and Malibu are quite big compared to other modern midsizers (e.g. wheelbase is even longer than the Accord's), and this car is to be yet one size larger. I think it will do just fine.

I think full-fullsize cars in terms of interior volume has plenty of room for growth. GM's older fullsize platforms just don't compete very well.

Buick Lucerne: 203.2 inches long, 73.8 inches wide, 108 cubic feet of cabin space
Ford Taurus: 201.8 inches long, 74.5 inches wide, 108 cubic feet of cabin space
Honda Accord sedan: 194.1 inches long, 72.7 inches wide, 106 cubic feet of cabin space
Mazda6: 193.7 inches long, 72.4 inches wide, 102 cubic feet of cabin space
Pontiac G8: 196.1 inches long, 74.5 inches wide, 107 cubic feet of cabin space
Hyundai Azera: 192.7 inches long, 72.8 inches wide, 107 cubic feet of cabin space
Hyundai Genesis: 195.9 inches long, 73.4 inches wide, 109.4 cubic feet of cabin space

The Lucerne is like the Ford Crown Victoria. You get a relatively modest amount of interior room when you consider the massive exterior volume. Although to be fair, the Ford Crown Victoria and Ford Taurus have enormous trunks. The Lucerne's trunk is also big - but not notably bigger than the G8 or Genesis trunk, and those are both 7 inches shorter!

The only US market sedan for less than $60,000 with anywhere near the cabin space of the Hyundai Genesis is the Crown Victoria, and it's a staggering 16 inches longer! If the Crown Victoria was updated to use space as efficiently as a Genesis, you could probably fit a hot tub in there.