Your Ideal Pontiac Lineup

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by t-rex

But I'm convinced trying to reinvent Pontiac based on the brand's past image will be a dreadful mistake. The customer base simply isn't there.

We will all have Pontiac to kick around for 4 more years (assuming GM is still alive then too)... My bet, in fall for model year 2010 Pontiac will be stripped down to JUST the G8 and the Solstice (assuming that Saturn is sold/gone... if Saturn is still around then the Solstice will be canned too)

That fits Rick's definition of "niche"... When Rick says "niche" Rick means one or two models...

Then in 2012 when the G8 is at the end of life when It goes it will take Pontiac out with it.

Pontiac's ONLY hope is the Rick is lying and that he will do something completely different then he is saying... Not to worry, it wouldn't be the first time that this happens.

[t-rex]

Originally Posted by 2002 Caddy

Then in 2012 when the G8 is at the end of life when It goes it will take Pontiac out with it.

I'm thinking this too. There will be no more new Pontiac designs. The only reason Rick isn't slashing Pontiac and GMC right now is to avoid the whole dealer/franchise situation.

I think eventually GMC won't be a "core brand" either, and GM will simply strip these two brands of product until the dealers can't stay open. Then he'll move Buick over to Caddy showrooms...

Unlike Olds, in this scenario, the dealers, not GM, would be getting rid of the brands by simply going out of business.

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by t-rex

Unlike Olds, in this scenario, the dealers, not GM, would be getting rid of the brands by simply going out of business.

Yes, Rick is betting, and if you do the math... by the end of 2012 there won't many Pontiac dealers left and the number of BPG dealers will also be dramatically reduced.

In "good" times a "niche" announcement would generate a flood of dealer lawsuits... The dealers now know that they would trigger chapter 11/7...

They are all just hoping that some decent Buick or GMC product will come down the pipe to keep them alive.

We fill get a formal announcement of Pontiacs death sometime in late 2009.

[Bravada]

But I'm convinced trying to reinvent Pontiac based on the brand's past image will be a dreadful mistake. The customer base simply isn't there.

The customer base is some 300-400 thousand customers. Pontiac is one of GM's THREE best-selling brands in the US (GMC is second). You might bet on those customers going to some other GM brands, but I doubt it.


I believe Pontiac will pick up Saturn's slack - even with the terrible choice of models, they've managed to outsell the coveted brand 2-to-1, and become the brand with the lowest average customer age. The Vibe enjoys popularity and loyalty in the way GM wished Saturns would - only that they've killed "THE" Saturns and wondered what happened.

Pontiac by 2012 should be:

1. new Corsa clone
2. new Astra as such [made in America]
3. Solstice/Sky merged
4. G8
5. Vibe - current or Meriva-based

G6 might be replaced by Buick Regal (Insignia) - it will be a gamble, as many people may not be prepared to switch from Pontiac to gramps Buick, and pay the obvious premium (GM is now giving away G6s for free), not to mention GM might be reluctant to dump it on fleets at the rate. G6 might survive longer than we might think, just like the Impaler.

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by Bravada

The customer base is some 300-400 thousand customers. Pontiac is one of GM's THREE best-selling brands in the US (GMC is second). You might bet on those customers going to some other GM brands, but I doubt it.


I believe Pontiac will pick up Saturn's slack - even with the terrible choice of models, they've managed to outsell the coveted brand 2-to-1, and become the brand with the lowest average customer age. The Vibe enjoys popularity and loyalty in the way GM wished Saturns would - only that they've killed "THE" Saturns and wondered what happened.

Pontiac by 2012 should be:

1. new Corsa clone
2. new Astra as such [made in America]
3. Solstice/Sky merged
4. G8
5. Vibe - current or Meriva-based

G6 might be replaced by Buick Regal (Insignia) - it will be a gamble, as many people may not be prepared to switch from Pontiac to gramps Buick, and pay the obvious premium (GM is now giving away G6s for free), not to mention GM might be reluctant to dump it on fleets at the rate. G6 might survive longer than we might think, just like the Impaler.

Sadly the truth is the customer base is barely 250,000, it is SIGNIFICANTLY less then when "Oldsmobile" was considered the brand with NO customers. To relate to what others have said about Olds... Pontiac has less then 2% of the North American market and really no longer has any relevance.

My prediction... come MY 2010 (fall of 2009) unless there is a MASSIVE uptick in the economy... the G3 G5 G6 and Vibe will be GONE Pontiac will be the G8 and the Solstice. Pontiac will become a marketing experiment to "test the waters" if America is ready for a "Muscle Car" again. G8 sales will continue to be a disappointment... Dealers will disappear faster then beer at a frat party... By 2012/13/14 Rick (or the next CEO) will terminate the brand.

regarding "picking up slack" They said the same thing about Buick when they were killing off Olds... It didn't happen then and it won't happen now.

[Bravada]

Sadly the truth is the customer base is barely 250,000

Add Canada and Mexico - I was speaking global Pontiac sales. With only three markets, they are doing pretty well!

Pontiac has less then 2% of the North American market and really no longer has any relevance.

Tell it to the people who made the Vibe one of THREE GM cars sold in the US to post a sales INCREASE in the current market.

My prediction... come MY 2010 (fall of 2009) unless there is a MASSIVE uptick in the economy... the G3 G5 G6 and Vibe will be GONE Pontiac will be the G8 and the Solstice. Pontiac will become a marketing experiment to "test the waters" if America is ready for a "Muscle Car" again. G8 sales will continue to be a disappointment... Dealers will disappear faster then beer at a frat party... By 2012/13/14 Rick (or the next CEO) will terminate the brand.

1. The won't be a MASSIVE uptick, but the economy will start recovering - the US has a pretty quick-responding economy, and Democrats won't be shy to throw fiscal stimuli every way that they can, except perhaps when it comes to military and big oil.

2. I don't think GM would eliminate the G3 only that they've launched it. It costs them nothing and nothing to keep on churning out the G3 and G5, as long as the Aveo and Cobalt are around, and G6 is vital for keeping Lake Orion running. The G6 just sells, why would GM kill it?

3. The experiment is already going on, and fizzled, because GM wasn't really sure if they want it to suceed or not. I think they will keep the G8 going out of sheer inertia.

4. There are only 60 or so standalone Pontiac dealers. The rest probably sell one of GM's "core" brands, so why should GM make them "disappear"?

regarding "picking up slack"

I meant - the role of "American Opel". They will probably get the Corsa and Astra instead of Saturn the next time around.

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by Bravada

Add Canada and Mexico - I was speaking global Pontiac sales. With only three markets, they are doing pretty well!



Tell it to the people who made the Vibe one of THREE GM cars sold in the US to post a sales INCREASE in the current market.



1. The won't be a MASSIVE uptick, but the economy will start recovering - the US has a pretty quick-responding economy, and Democrats won't be shy to throw fiscal stimuli every way that they can, except perhaps when it comes to military and big oil.

2. I don't think GM would eliminate the G3 only that they've launched it. It costs them nothing and nothing to keep on churning out the G3 and G5, as long as the Aveo and Cobalt are around, and G6 is vital for keeping Lake Orion running. The G6 just sells, why would GM kill it?

3. The experiment is already going on, and fizzled, because GM wasn't really sure if they want it to succeed or not. I think they will keep the G8 going out of sheer inertia.

4. There are only 60 or so standalone Pontiac dealers. The rest probably sell one of GM's "core" brands, so why should GM make them "disappear"?



I meant - the role of "American Opel". They will probably get the Corsa and Astra instead of Saturn the next time around.

These are Rick's words not mine...
But Rick has said a few things
1) You are right... during a business recovery you will cut fat and waste...That will be the "niche brand" sorry.
2) Too much product overlap... Continuing with the G3,G5,G6 etc competes with a core brand.. THAT costs money... and that is a bad thing..
3) Yes the G8 will continue... It competes with nothing else sold by any other "core" division... Unlike the G3,5,& 6 the G8 really does cost nothing.
4) Too many dealers... doesn't matter what they sell. He wants fewer dealers.. even core dealers need to go. When he has to pick between saving a Pontiac dealer and a Chevy one guess what he will pick.

[Bravada]

2) Too much product overlap... Continuing with the G3,G5,G6 etc competes with a core brand.. THAT costs money... and that is a bad thing..

It doesn't cost them any money to KEEP building those vehicles.

4) Too many dealers... doesn't matter what they sell. He wants fewer dealers.. even core dealers need to go. When he has to pick between saving a Pontiac dealer and a Chevy one guess what he will pick.

A Pontiac dealer usually retails two other core brands. I don't think it really matters now. What GM should do is make all Chevrolet dealers carry BPG, and the other way around, plus gradually introduce CPBG @ Saturn, gradually phasing out Saturns.

[2b2]

Originally Posted by Bravada

...What GM should do is make all Chevrolet dealers carry BPG, and the other way around, plus gradually introduce CPBG @ Saturn, gradually phasing out Saturns.

I doubt most Chevrolet dealers have room to add 3 other nameplates
but
agree that
a reduced Saturn lineup would be easy to add to reduced BPGmc lineups at those dealerships:
GMI thread, external website

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by Bravada

It doesn't cost them any money to KEEP building those vehicles.

A Pontiac dealer usually retails two other core brands. I don't think it really matters now. What GM should do is make all Chevrolet dealers carry BPG, and the other way around, plus gradually introduce CPBG @ Saturn, gradually phasing out Saturns.

You are ignoring the CORE of Ricks argument about the new core of GM.

Too many dealers, Too much product overlap, and too much internal competition has resulted in too much SUPPLY and not enough DEMAND...

As we all know GM has to all too often put $2000-4000 (and more) on the hood to sell cars... Rick is betting that contracting the number of dealers will
bring supply under control... If GM didn't have to offer so many incentives to move cars they might be able to actually sell them at a profit.

You see too many G5's DOES cost GM money... It places downward price pressure on Cobalts...

And as we have discussed in the past GM can not just give away dealership franchisees willy nilly... even if they want to... THAT will generate lawsuits... Hundreds of them.

[Bravada]

You see too many G5's DOES cost GM money... It places downward price pressure on Cobalts...

If that was the case, GM wouldn't've even started with the G5.

a reduced Saturn lineup would be easy to add to reduced BPGmc lineups at those dealerships

Not reduced - converged:

1. next Astra -> Pontiac G5 replacement
2. Aura -> phased out when then Regal and LaCrosse arive
3. VUE -> could go Rendezvous OR Terrain



4. Outlook -> Acadia
5. Sky = Solstice

[2b2]

^ Aura>Regal>INSIGNIA(Cutlass? )
it's just the smaller than ^that F-Awd vehicles that I don't see being a benefit to the Pontiac (OR Buick) nameplates
(but think you knew that)

I just don't believe in killing any more familiar nameplates than absolutely necessary
GM is going to need as much 'established recognition' as possible during its re-org

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by Bravada

If that was the case, GM wouldn't've even started with the G5.

And thank you for proving my point (Holly cow I can't believe I'm defending a Rick business proposal)

GM Management didn't want to make the G5.... They knew it was a mistake...

You and I both know that they were FORCED to make this dog... By the DEALERS! The very dealers that Rick wants to shut down...

This time (and there is a first time for everything) Rick was Right!
The G5 was a mistake.

[Firebird00]

Agreed on the Pontiac challenging Nissan thing. That is what they should have targeted instead of BMW (even though that never really panned out). In fact, if in GMs unending ignorance they stop producing Pontiacs, Nissan or Infiniti is the brand I will be buying a car from most likely. The Altimas, 350Zs, G35s etc... are all really sweet cars. They have style and performance. Chevy would REALLY have to pull something out to make me buy one (excluding Corvette and Camaro because I will always be tempted by them).

[Bravada]

GM Management didn't want to make the G5.... They knew it was a mistake...

It's not that GM only realized they have too many dealers before the Congress. I sincerely hope they didn't devise their strategy for the hearings, they've just outlined them there (like Ford), or rather were forced to reveal more. So they knew where they are taking Pontiac, and the BPG network, when they were introducing the G5. Don't tell me the dealers are so powerful they can force a car upon GM!

GM simply realized the market will be in compact cars, the Ion was nearing its end and replacement with the low-volume Astra (one of the reasons was that GM stopped the development of the next Ion, so they had little in the way of a new compact car for a few years), and BPG dealers had nothing there and return customers who'd buy something. And if you're GM - when in doubt, rebadge.

As concerns trimming down the dealership network, blanket moves such as simply cutting down BPG are the worst you could do. In some areas, the BPG dealer would be the one "worth saving", while Chevrolet (and other) dealers would be the ones to cut. Moreover, the franchises are distributed pretty randomly, so there are Chevrolet-Pontiacs, Mazda-Pontiacs and Subaru-Pontiacs etc.

Again, GM can force any dealership to close by manipulating the economic conditions in which they operate (sales cut, share in promo expenses, financing conditions). Shutting down a brand is certainly not a way to restructure the dealership network.

it's just the smaller than ^that F-Awd vehicles that I don't see being a benefit to the Pontiac (OR Buick) nameplates
(but think you knew that)

I just don't believe in killing any more familiar nameplates than absolutely necessary
GM is going to need as much 'established recognition' as possible during its re-org

I am not sure I understand what you imply, or rather am pretty sure I don't.

1. Insignia is coming as Regal, a very familiar nameplate - this is an established nameplate. Not that Buick couldn't use a smaller car to take on the Camries (the G6 just can't anymore).

2. LaCrosse (an already familiar nameplate, for better or worse) will more or less become the "big" Buick - but will coexist with the slightly larger Lucerne for some time... The trick is to price all three of them right.