US Crude Oil Supply, Demand, Fuel Consumption/Imports/Exports, and a SURPRISE

[44 mpg by 2010]

US demand for gasoline has declined 6% since 2007. And domestic petroleum production is increasing, 11% since 2008. DOD demand should be declining as "wars" wind down, so far down 8% since 2004 when DOD consumption was about 2.4% of US refinery capacity.

You can generate a graph for US gasoline demand from 1949 to 2011.

Keep in mind that the traditional US refinery yields 10 gallons of diesel and 19 gallons of gasoline per barrel regardless of the price of crude. Newer revised refineries can increase diesel yield to 13 gallons/barrel or about 32 gallons of gasoline and diesel per barrel ... not bad for the revenue stream regardless of the price of crude.

Oh, don't forget, that refineries typically yield another 14⁺ gallon equivalents of assorted other petro products/chemicals.

Just some things I have been looking at ...

IMPORTS

Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...-Z00_MBBLD&f=4

Gasoline import demand has declined to 28K barrels/day from 637K barrels/day in 2006. Meanwhile gasoline exports have increased from roughly 100K barrels/day in 2008 to 400⁺K barrels/day in 2012.

Diesel http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea..._NUS-Z00_2&f=4

Here is a surprise to me, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) imports spiked to 250K barrels/day in 2006 but has declined 80% over the last 6 years to about 49K barrels/day. Now I remember, that was BEFORE we, the US, had <15 ppm sulfur diesel capability, just beginning to come on line in 2008. Now we are exporting 750K barrels/day of ULSD.

That is enough exported diesel fuel to supply >38,325,000 Euro type fuel frugal diesel vehicles 15K miles annually without requiring ONE additional barrel of crude ... domestic or foreign.

Just think, that would fuel about 16% of the current US light vehicle fleet ... with NO increase in crude oil requirements. Make the vehicles available (by import waiver if no other way) and let the market decide!!!

That sounds to me like a MAJOR STEP ... TOWARD ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ... and NATIONAL SECURITY! How about you??

Exports

Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea..._NUS-Z00_2&f=M

Diesel http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...-z00_mbbld&f=m

Just thought some of you might be interested.

Are there any problems with my data or logic? Please let me know, opinions appreciated.

[Tone]

My biggest concerns with looking at current diesel consumption has to do with what I presume is the biggest user of diesel: heavy freight transport. I assume that, given the economy, recent usage isn't terribly representative. Assuming some reasonable level of economic growth, what would that segment require in terms of diesel and how would that impact what's left for personal transport. My gut is a growing economy with (hopefully) more manufacturing activity would substantially increase domestic diesel consumption above whatever the previous peak was.

[Neanderthal]

Kewl post, 44. Thankyuhhverruhhmuchh!

[44 mpg by 2010]

Tone ... your concern is valid.

However, we have been exporting diesel of various grades at relatively high volumes for a relatively long time.

With coming refinery upgrade modifications diesel production can be expected to increase by up to 30% based on yield/barrel input over the next 10~15 years.

Two refineries have completed these upgrades in the last 24 months with a combined processing capacity of about 400K barrels/day. Those 2 facilities alone should produce a previously unavailable 24K barrels/day of ULSD diesel.

More refineries will move in this direction as the quality of crude declines.

I don't preceive a problem of US diesel availability in the foreseeable future. Although, someone may know otherwise.

[Neanderthal]

What I want to know is when will we be moving on from crude oil to courteous and well-mannered oil?

[44 mpg by 2010]

It just occurred to me ... that with the strategy proposed above ... the US could increase by 574.875 BILLION the annual vehicle miles driven simply by using the currently exported US ULSD diesel fuel in domestically available fuel frugal diesel light vehicles with NO increase in US petroleum requirement.

Of course 38,325,000 light diesel vehicles would displace some gasoline machines actually reducing gasoline demand.

Surplus gasoline available for export? Reduced stress on refinery capacity?

Maybe, net US petroleum requirements should actually decline?

What would that do for US balance of trade?

IF those machines were built in the US ... what would that do for OUR economy?

Any problems with the ideas, logic, or numbers yet????

You folks aught to be able to find something wrong ... with the numbers, logic, something ...

The only question I can think of is rate of US consumer acceptance of the fuel frugal small displacement (<2 Liters) diesel light vehicles.

[voyager]

I would be interested to know:
- how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumes?
- how much of this needs to be imported?
- how much of this is used to fuel power plants?
- how much of this is used for transport in general?
- what is the percentage passenger cars account for (out of 'transport')?

[Tone]

I would be interested to know:
- how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumes?
- how much of this needs to be imported?
- how much of this is used to fuel power plants?
- how much of this is used for transport in general?
- what is the percentage passenger cars account for (out of 'transport')?

Some good answers here: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/i...ergy_home#tab2

[44 mpg by 2010]

Voyager, I believe http://www.eia.gov can answer all of your questions ... and then some.


Tone beat me ...

[fakeout]

http://www.meteomedia.com/news/storm...her_topstories

If you can read French, you can read on a plane fueled by mustard. lol

[44 mpg by 2010]

The mustard based fuel contains cycloparaffins and aromatics that are not present in catalytically produced gas-to-liquid diesel.

Rape seed would probably also work the same ... since they are in the same general class.

[Smaart Aas Saabr]

http://www.meteomedia.com/news/storm...her_topstories

If you can read French, you can read on a plane fueled by mustard. lol

Flying for an hour and a half between Montreal and Ottawa? I can drive that in my car and not even get a ticket!

[voyager]

Eia/gov talks about U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels of oil a day.



If you look at energy consumption per sector then 28% is used for all sorts of transportation... Now I have to find out how much of that is being accounted for by passenger cars...

But since total U.S. energy consumption covers more than burning away barrels of oil, transportation should account for a bigger slice of the oil consumptionpie.

That's when I found this: http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/fuels.aspx

"U.S. Transportation fuel consumption accounts for over 70 percent of total U.S. oil consumption, and more than 65 percent of that amount is for personal vehicles. American drivers consume about nine million barrels of gasoline per day for personal transportation—378 million gallons every day—about 45 percent of total U.S. oil consumption.... The United States imports 6 million barrels of crude oil per day from OPEC nations."

However.... (and this just came in) "U.S oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the next decade, making the world’s biggest fuel consumer almost self reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday."

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/...rabias-by-2020

Thank the Dutchman who has a soft spot for figures ;-)

[Smaart Aas Saabr]

It might be an interesting and typically ignored sideline. We talk always of getting cars not to run on oil. But in the old day, everything ran on oil. Now everything else has moved away from oil completely. Oil used to run power plants, heat homes...