US demand for gasoline has declined 6% since 2007. And domestic petroleum production is increasing, 11% since 2008. DOD demand should be declining as "wars" wind down, so far down 8% since 2004 when DOD consumption was about 2.4% of US refinery capacity.
You can generate a graph for US gasoline demand from 1949 to 2011.
Keep in mind that the traditional US refinery yields 10 gallons of diesel and 19 gallons of gasoline per barrel regardless of the price of crude. Newer revised refineries can increase diesel yield to 13 gallons/barrel or about 32 gallons of gasoline and diesel per barrel ... not bad for the revenue stream regardless of the price of crude.
Oh, don't forget, that refineries typically yield another 14+ gallon equivalents of assorted other petro products/chemicals.
Just some things I have been looking at ...
Gasoline import demand has declined to 28K barrels/day from 637K barrels/day in 2006. Meanwhile gasoline exports have increased from roughly 100K barrels/day in 2008 to 400+K barrels/day in 2012.
Here is a surprise to me, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) imports spiked to 250K barrels/day in 2006 but has declined 80% over the last 6 years to about 49K barrels/day. Now I remember, that was BEFORE we, the US, had <15 ppm sulfur diesel capability, just beginning to come on line in 2008. Now we are exporting 750K barrels/day of ULSD.
That is enough exported diesel fuel to supply >38,325,000 Euro type fuel frugal diesel vehicles 15K miles annually without requiring ONE additional barrel of crude ... domestic or foreign.
Just think, that would fuel about 16% of the current US light vehicle fleet ... with NO increase in crude oil requirements. Make the vehicles available (by import waiver if no other way) and let the market decide!!!
That sounds to me like a MAJOR STEP ... TOWARD ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ... and NATIONAL SECURITY! How about you??
Just thought some of you might be interested.
Are there any problems with my data or logic? Please let me know, opinions appreciated.