There is no gas shortage...

[EldoFan]

Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis

I totally agree, but then we're going to have another problem....

That speculation is being driven by hedge funds. The same kind of hedge funds that created the subprime lending bubble. When that bubble popped you saw how many banks nearly folded. Well, the same is going to happen when the oil bubble pops but its only going to be worse.

You see, these hedge funds only supply about 10% of their own cash for speculative buying. The rest is borrowed from banks. When the oil bubble pops and those banks call in the loans,..... well, the excrement is going to hit the fan and WE are going to be left holding the bag..

The oil companies rake in record profits year after year.......one would think they could survive at least a short period when the 'bubble bursts'......

Otherwise what you're suggesting is that prices will skyrocket when the **** does hit the fan right??

[1931Chevy]

Whats been pushing prices up is all the damn speculation thats all

[Sgt Beavis]

Originally Posted by EldoFan

The oil companies rake in record profits year after year.......one would think they could survive at least a short period when the 'bubble bursts'......

Otherwise what you're suggesting is that prices will skyrocket when the **** does hit the fan right??

Hi Eidofan...

Yes, I think the oil companies would survive. Evidence shows that the oil companies are not overextended in oil speculation. The Hedge Funds are a different case. They are driving speculation.

Why do you think the Fed bailed out Bear Stearns? They did it to prevent a Great Depression. Personally I think they overreacted but when a major financial institution like that is about to go under, you've got to do something. The problem is that the Fed is now constantly printing money to bail out these banks and hedge funds. They are basically giving them a get out of jail for free card. This is what is causing the dollar to fall as much as it has.

When the bubble does finally pop, oil prices WILL come down fast and furious. The problem is I believe we the consumers are going to feel the pain from the financial fallout of that bubble bursting.

[mustang84]

I thought this was a great piece, but I've been trying to find the evidence that oil reserves have in fact been increasing. I went to the Energy Information Administration website he mentioned, and under the US Proved Reserves page, the reserves have steadily been declining since 1970. Am I missing something?

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rcrr01nus_1a.htm

Here's the link for the entire Reserves page
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe..._dcu_NUS_a.htm

[CJ Thunder]

Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis

Umm, I'm not talking about switching between E10 and E85. Hell there are barely any stations that carry E85 to begin with. If that were the case we would be blowing up a lot of engines in this country since most cars can't handle anything beyond E10.

MOST gas is now E10 period. Summer blends involve changing the refining process and the additives put into gas.

Many E10 formulations are created with splash blending (which sucks) which doesn't need a refinery to take place. It is basically just mixing the two together...

See I just did research and its a blend of gas so it doesn't heat up in the sumer to cause less smog. Holy **** at one end its the hippies with no jobs ****ing us and at the other its the ones that have so much money they don't give a ****.

[Sgt Beavis]

Originally Posted by CJ Thunder

See I just did research and its a blend of gas so it doesn't heat up in the sumer to cause less smog. Holy **** at one end its the hippies with no jobs ****ing us and at the other its the ones that have so much money they don't give a ****.

I would be ok with that if it actually worked...

BTW, it doesn't.

[SwampFoxZ71]

This is not much different than the late 70's & early 80's. Gas was an issue then and what did Americans do? Switched to fuel efficient cars, by and large. This caused less actual consumption, which in turn, whether an artificial crisis or not, caused prices to drop as there was too damned much of the stuff being pumped out.

Fast forward to today. Regardless of whether the 'crisis' is fabricated or not, many people across the globe are purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles, Americans included. Once the balance point is hit between Americans dumping inefficient vehicles for efficient ones, then the trend will slowly reverse itself and prices will eventually come back down.

Speculation or not, crisis or not, none of that matters...it all boils down to supply and demand. It's not supply or demand. If supply is somewhat tight and demand is high, speculation has now caused prices to spike. In 3-5 years time if supply is still tight but demand drops, speculation will dip too knowing demand is down and supply will likely begin to increase. Prices will then eventually drop as well and stabalize at a more realistic rate.

Then after years of driving gutless efficient autos, Americans and people around the globe will then again want power and/or size in a future purchase and the whole damned cycle repeats itself.

From the looks of it, this may become a 30 year cycle with 15 years in between ebb and flow. 1977 to 1992 peak to low and 1992 thru 2007 low to peaks again. We'll see if the trend continues but my guess it will be something close as market forces usually take time to affect consumer change and consumer change can in turn take time to impact market forces.

JMO

[paul8488]

Interesting post, SwapFox, but my worry is that this time China and India are going to slurp up any excess oil that changing American habits free up.

Great truck man! I love the look of a regular cab, short-box truck. The flares look good too.

[EldoFan]

Originally Posted by paul8488

Interesting post, SwapFox, but my worry is that this time China and India are going to slurp up any excess oil that changing American habits free up.

With China's lax pollution regulations.......in another 15 yrs. there might not be as many consumers around to slurp up all that excess oil.....

[SwampFoxZ71]

Originally Posted by paul8488

Interesting post, SwapFox, but my worry is that this time China and India are going to slurp up any excess oil that changing American habits free up.

Great truck man! I love the look of a regular cab, short-box truck. The flares look good too.

Thanks for the props on the truck, even if it is a 'lowly Colorado'!

And your concern regarding India and China are valid, but not much different than other emerging nations 30 years ago (Japan's growth, West Germany returning to economic prominence and countless other nation's who've grown by leaps and bounds over that time and no longer are).

The one thing I've learned about the economy and life in general is that "Nothing stays the same" but also, "The more things change the more they stay the same".

Both India and China will not get a free pass forever. Either they will need to fall in line w/ other developed nations at some point or their excess will begin to kill all their people which will either reduce their use/demand or the ppl will demand change to protect their children, too.

It all evens out in the wash...

[CJ Thunder]

Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis

I would be ok with that if it actually worked...

BTW, it doesn't.

Exactly, more regulations and laws that don't really do what they were intended to do, decades after the laws were made, screwing a new generation with different problems.

[paul8488]

The difference between Japan and Germany then and China and India now is the sheer number of people. The population of China is 1,330,044,605, and the population of India is 1,147,995,898... if even 10% of their populations get to the point where they can afford a car there will be nearly as many drivers as there are people in the US. There's strength in numbers... I think that Tata is going to be very busy screwing together Nanos!

[paul8488]

Oh, and that's a great truck! Don't listen to anyone... the Colorado and Canyon are great midsize trucks. I want one someday.

[logansowner]

Originally Posted by paul8488

The difference between Japan and Germany then and China and India now is the sheer number of people. The population of China is 1,330,044,605, and the population of India is 1,147,995,898... if even 10% of their populations get to the point where they can afford a car there will be nearly as many drivers as there are people in the US. There's strength in numbers... I think that Tata is going to be very busy screwing together Nanos!

Very true. I'd like to see GM start hawkin Aveo's and Cobalts there rather than big vehicles. All we are doing is taking a problem we have here (too much consumption) and introducing it to the rest of the world.

[SwampFoxZ71]

Originally Posted by paul8488

Oh, and that's a great truck! Don't listen to anyone... the Colorado and Canyon are great midsize trucks. I want one someday.

Thanks! I love mine. Plenty of power, decent on gas, comfortable ride, 6disc changer and power sunroof, 4wd works great in the snow and it handles all of the truck tasks I will ever ask of it...and if fits in the garage w/ our other car.