IL Corrects Volt Story: Batteries Will NOT Charge When Driving; GM Website Differs

[Hybridized]

EdSuski,

Unless further EPA testing has been done I am unaware of, the quoted 50 mpg in charge depletion mode is from the easy 06 city cycle. This is the one Prius received a 60 mpg rating on. It was also this cycle I believe that EV comsumption was measured. I expect the median real-world to be quite a bit less EV range, and a lower ICE mpg in depleted mode.

[Hybridized]

I'm surprised anybody is trying to justify the Volt in terms of out-of-pocket expenses compared to current alternatives. The table below (if formatting is preserved) was made by me and published in a finance forum recently:

Q: How much will the car cost?
A: Goal is to be less than $30,000, but first versions might be closer to $40,000. [GM Faq]

Fuel cost: First 40 miles of EV only, 8 kWh. As of 2008 a kWh in the US is 8 - 12 cents depending on location.
After 40 miles and until next battery recharge, expect about 50 mpg.

Opportunity Cost Comparison
Opportunity cost is the cost of foregone opportunities.
Assuming that are comparing the cost of these cars against putting the money in the bank for 10 years at 5%.
If you put the 40k in the bank on day 1 instead of buying a car after 10 years at 5% you'll have 65,155k.

Assumptions: [BULLET][LI]You drive the car for 10 years, and for 15k miles a year.
[LI]Electricity costs .08/kWh, and that the Volt gets to only use electricity (a big assumption)
[LI]The gas cars gets 25mpg.[/BULLET]

Therefore, assuming a time value of money of 5% per year, in terms of 10-years-later-dollars, your costs are:

[C]$4/gallon petrol
| Capital Cost | Fuel Costs | Fuel Opport cost | Total cost in 10 years
40k Volt | 65,155 | 3,019 | 882 | 69,056
10k car | 16,289 | 24,000 | 7056 | 47,345
20k car | 32,578 | 24,000 | 7056 | 63,634
30k car | 48,867 | 24,000 | 7056 | 79,923
23K Prius | 37,464 | 12,000 | 3528 | 52,992 (assuming 50mpg)
[/C]

[C]$5/gallon petrol
| Capital Cost | Fuel Costs | Fuel Opport cost | Total cost in 10 years
40k Volt | 65,155 | 3,019 | 882 | 69,056
10k car | 16,289 | 30,000 | 8820 | 55,109
20k car | 32,578 | 30,000 | 8820 | 71,398
30k car | 48,867 | 30,000 | 8820 | 87,687
23K Prius | 37,464 | 15,000 | 4410 | 56,874 (assuming 50mpg)
[/C]

[C]$6/gallon petrol
| Capital Cost | Fuel Costs | Fuel Opport cost | Total cost in 10 years
40k Volt | 65,155 | 3,019 | 882 | 69,056
10k car | 16,289 | 36,000 | 10584 | 62,873
20k car | 32,578 | 36,000 | 10584 | 79,162
30k car | 48,867 | 36,000 | 10584 | 95,451
23K Prius | 37,464 | 18,000 | 5292 | 60,756 (assuming 50mpg)
[/C]

[drew630]

Originally Posted by CaptainDan

It's also STILL wrong. It can be a little confusing, but here is how it works, how GM has ALWAYS said that it works:

The Volt will run 40 miles purely on the electricity saved in it's FULL battery charge. But after that (a bottom of about a 30% charge), the gas engine will run as a generator, to produce electricity. That electricity will be used to run the car, AND CHARGE THE BATTERY. But only because the gas engine will be running at a steady, maximum efficiency rate. Since the car is NOT likely to be running at a steady rate (speed up, slow down, climb hills, coast, etc), The (sometimes) excess charge will go into the battery (load leveling), plus whatever charge may be added by regenerative braking. The gas engine will, of course, not FULLY charge the battery. On reaching, say a 35% charge, the engine would shut off.

The gas engine SHOULD NEVER be fully charging the battery! The idea is to charge it at home (or wherever you can plug it in) to fully charge the battery. The gas engine is there as a backup. For when you've exceeded the battery range, but aren't somewhere (or have the time) to recharge the battery.

Producing the electricity to charge the battery is several times more expensive if you use gasoline to do it! You plug it in to save that money. You would not be very happy if you got home, and plugged in your Volt for a cheap recharge, only to find out it was already full, having recharged itself with your expensive gasoline!

And no, the Volt NEVER becomes "a basic ordinary high mileage car". It is an electric car. Unlike the typical hybrids you see around, the gas engine never does, and CANNOT directly drive the car. So there is no need to worry about whether the gas engine shuts off blow 25mph. It runs when the battery is depleted (30%) and you have it do something (move the car, run power-using accessories, whatever)

If you NEVER plugged it in, the gas engine would be running most of the time the car is moving (making electricity), but at a maximum efficiency, steady state, using the battery as a load leveler, which is more efficient than any typical hybrid does it.

Thank you for clearing it up for me. I was really confused.

[E. Haskell]

$23k for a Prius? On what planet? Try $30k++ for a plug in Prius with a 10 mile range.

As always, a cheaper car is cheaper to own. When it comes to these high tech cars, you've gotta pay to play.

[Hybridized]

E. Haskell, the $23k is msrp of a base Prius.

[E. Haskell]

Originally Posted by Hybridized

E. Haskell, the $23k is msrp of a base Prius.

Most people buy the Touring model which has a real world price of around $26-29k. If Toyota brings out a plug in Prius, expect it to be $30k+. Lets compare apple to apples here.

[Hybridized]

E Haskell,

Not sure what makes a Prius Touring an apple, and I am skeptical about the claim it is the most sought after model. As for real world pricing, I presume you are talking about dealer price mark-ups during this period of supply<demand inbalance. Seems unfair, since the same thing could happen to the Volt, if GM dealers get their prayers answered

I'll refrain from Prius PHEV to Volt price comparisons since no pricing exists on said future Prius. Anyway, the point I was making was that the Volt is not going to sell based on cost. Lutz made that point not two years ago in regards to hybrids, and it is doubly true for plug-ins for the forseeable future.

[E. Haskell]

Originally Posted by Hybridized

E Haskell,

Not sure what makes a Prius Touring an apple, and I am skeptical about the claim it is the most sought after model. As for real world pricing, I presume you are talking about dealer price mark-ups during this period of supply<demand inbalance. Seems unfair, since the same thing could happen to the Volt, if GM dealers get their prayers answered

The Prius Touring isn't the apple, but it's also not a stripped down base model. The base Prius doesn't even have cruise control - something that will most likely be standard on the Volt. If you want cruise on the current Prius you are looking at a base price of $25,100...throw in an option package and you're easily at $27-29k.

Comparing apples to apples would be '10 or '11 plug in Prius vs Volt. The PHEV Prius will likely be over $30k with a vastly inferior electric only range.

I'll refrain from Prius PHEV to Volt price comparisons since no pricing exists on said future Prius.

We don't know where the Volt will be priced either. All we've heard is $30-40k. Then you've got possible tax credits. The Volt could come in under $30k.

[edsuski]

Originally Posted by Hybridized

EdSuski,

Unless further EPA testing has been done I am unaware of, the quoted 50 mpg in charge depletion mode is from the easy 06 city cycle. This is the one Prius received a 60 mpg rating on. It was also this cycle I believe that EV comsumption was measured. I expect the median real-world to be quite a bit less EV range, and a lower ICE mpg in depleted mode.

Here is the link to the thread that claimed that the EPA had "doomed" the Volt to only 48 MPG. It is disingenuous to compare this to the Prius number since the first 40 miles would have used zero gas.

EPA test dooms Volt to 48 mpg rating!

[Hybridized]

Originally Posted by E. Haskell

If you want cruise on the current Prius you are looking at a base price of $25,100...throw in an option package and you're easily at $27-29k.

Huh.

I have a Prius that cost about $25k without tax credits. It has cruise control and the base package, and also an opton package that included Vehicle Stability Control (VSC) Traction Control
Voice-Activated Vehicle Navigation System
Side Impact Air Bags
Intermittent Rear Wiper
Keyless Remote Smart Entry System
JBL Premium AM/FM ETR Stereo with Cassette Radio
Security Alarm Theft Deterrent System
HomeLink Universal Transmitter
Front Fog Lights
High-Intensity Discharge Headlights
--------

Back to my original point: the Volt is not a choice for the price conscious consumer. And now let's return to the thread, OK ? I honestly only joined this forum out of particular interest of whether it is true that the Volt cannot charge the battery during driving.

[edsuski]

Originally Posted by jtrav91

Not even close. The new sales number had been just under 17 million until gas prices started to soar. Now it is down to about 14.5 million for the US every year. Worldwide annual totals were somewhere around 60 million.

The data I was using was for cars only and from 2006 - Hard to imagine it has increased that much - but maybe.

"In the year 2006, 7,667,066 passengers cars were sold in the United States[6] according to the US Department of Transportation. This figure “Includes domestic and imported vehicles." (Department of Transportation) The number of vehicles sold in the US has been decreasing at a gradual yet continuous rate since 1999, when nearly 8.7 million vehicles were sold in the US. Looking back at history however, reveals that such decline is only part of normal market trends and most likely only a temporary affair. Overall, 1985 was a record year with cars sales totaling just over eleven million."

[Hybridized]

Originally Posted by edsuski

Here is the link to the thread that claimed that the EPA had "doomed" the Volt to only 48 MPG. It is disingenuous to compare this to the Prius number since the first 40 miles would have used zero gas.

EPA test dooms Volt to 48 mpg rating!

Perhaps I was unclear. Just as many drivers of Prius do not get 60 mpg in city driving because their driving differs from the EPA 06' test, I expect the same "discrepancy" to happen with many Volt drivers.

In the EPA test of the Volt I am familiar with, EV driving consumed 0.2 Kwh/mile, which is where the 40 mile EV range of Volt is from. Many drivers consume 0.3 kWh/mile in both city and highway driving, which will work out to 27 EV miles. Similarly, the 48 mpg rating in CS mode was at low speeds AFAIK, and so "real world" highway mpg can be expected to be lower.

Perhaps fuel consumption data in the Volt on other test courses is known ?

[Hybridized]

Originally Posted by edsuski

The data I was using was for cars only and from 2006 - Hard to imagine it has increased that much - but maybe.

"In the year 2006, 7,667,066 passengers cars were sold in the United States[6] according to the US Department of Transportation. This figure “Includes domestic and imported vehicles." (Department of Transportation) The number of vehicles sold in the US has been decreasing at a gradual yet continuous rate since 1999, when nearly 8.7 million vehicles were sold in the US. Looking back at history however, reveals that such decline is only part of normal market trends and most likely only a temporary affair. Overall, 1985 was a record year with cars sales totaling just over eleven million."

The 14 - 16 million/year number includes so called 'light trucks': SUVs and trucks under 8500 pounds. If I remember right, for a couple of years they made up around 60% of US non-commercial vehicle sales.

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by edsuski

There are roughly 7-8 million cars sold each year in the United States. The average MSRP is $30,000. With tax incentives and a fuel savings (at $4/gallon) of about $300 per month (this takes into account the $24 - $48 worth of electricity to travel 40 miles every day for one month) - I think a lot of people will be able to afford a Volt. Not everyone - but many. Also, if GM could manufacture 200K per year they would be doing well - so I don't think there will be any problem selling every one GM can make.

That number of $30000 is suspect I think.

There's about 7-8 million NEW cars sold each year but I'm certain that the typical transaction price is much closer to $20000 than to $30000. But... there are also at least 7-10 million USED cars sold each year as well at an average price well below $15000.

The USED vehicle market is at least as big if not bigger than the NEW vehicle market.

Don't get your hopes up on the Volt being an immediate smash in the 100's of thousands of units, especially not at $40000 per. The same would be true for the PHEV Prius. Both will be small volume high-end vehicles that the masses will pass on simply due to price and secondly the normal evolution of innovations has to be factored into the production plans.

Here....http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/...ion_curve.html

The Rogers Innovation Adoption Cure

[PhishPhood]

Originally Posted by E. Haskell

$23k for a Prius? On what planet? Try $30k++ for a plug in Prius with a 10 mile range.

As always, a cheaper car is cheaper to own. When it comes to these high tech cars, you've gotta pay to play.

He was writing about a 'traditional' hybrid only Prius. That's about the price of a 2008 standard package #2. Yes the PHEV model in 2010 will likely be in the $35000 range.