No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

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Thread: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

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    No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Inside EVs
    May 17, 2017

    Jonas warns investors that Model 3 deliveries are likely to be lower than Tesla’s forecast in 2017 and 2018. Tesla says that sales of the Model 3 should be in the 5-digit range for 2017 and 6-digit range for 2018, Jonas meanwhile disagrees. According to Jonas, Tesla will deliver no real volume of Model 3s in 2017.

    Here’s Jonas’ statement of the Model 3:

    “Model 3 expectations appear to have recovered substantially over the last 4 months. Earlier this year investor expectations for Model 3 hit a trough with most investors we spoke with at that time expecting zero deliveries of the model during 2017 A series of subsequent reiterations from management and the spotting of release candidates testing on public roads have increased expectations of timing and volume significantly.

    Although we cannot quantify what the market expectation is at this point, we believe our forecast of 2k Model 3 deliveries this year is substantially below current market expectations. Looking to 2018, we believe our 90k volume forecast is also far below Street expectations, possibly one-half or one-third market expectations for Model 3 volume next year.”

    Those figures are not even in the same ballpark as Tesla’s projections:

    “Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Production begins mid 2017. Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.
    Mr. Jonas as you may know, is the Wall Street "go-to" guy on Tesla. He has been quite a bull on the company...until the past few weeks.

    The Model 3 looks like it may be a winner - not sure if the sedan body was a wise choice over the hatchback style of the Model S. As the 2018 Buick Regal may prove, the "hatchback" may be on its way to becoming the new "sedan" here in the United States.

    The above wording is from the Tesla website. So 400,000 reserved vehicles will be (let's say) "mostly" delivered by mid-2018 (or later as is stated)?

    Talk about an ambitious ramp up! This is going to be interesting to watch, to say the least.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Wow, so they are planning to build 10,000 a week or 520,000 a year. That's pretty huge, will ongoing demand for an electric vehicle be enough to support that kind of production capacity? Meaning once the upfront pre-order glut is gone will there be such demand 4 or 5 years from now or will the factory be running at half capacity? I assume this is for world-wide demand, but still seems like a lot for a new brand in a new segment.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Tesla needs to poach a lot of UAW production folks, and factory leadership gurus to pull this thing off effectively.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Well.......you don't say????

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by Perian View Post
    .....“Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”
    He meant that they have "preparations" in place to accept all of the deposits for such a rate of production. The actual ability to produce the cars? Well, no. But they are thinking about it. So they have that going for them!
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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Model 3 may be more stylish than the Bolt, but not nearly as spacious and practical. It is not likely to quite match the FE of the Bolt either. So... it remains to be seen how many are suckers for the Tesla hype. More hip to say "I have a Tesla" than to say "I own a Bolt". When Bolt is available nationwide it will be interesting to see how the head to head competition works out. My projection is that brand name trumps practicality at least 2 -1.

    As a business case, Tesla will lose money on every one. It is hard to believe Musk is prepared to take it in the shorts at the rate of 2,000 - 5,000 cars a week since he is already in a serious deficit.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by criticalmass View Post
    Model 3 may be more stylish than the Bolt, but not nearly as spacious and practical. It is not likely to quite match the FE of the Bolt either. So... it remains to be seen how many are suckers for the Tesla hype. More hip to say "I have a Tesla" than to say "I own a Bolt". When Bolt is available nationwide it will be interesting to see how the head to head competition works out. My projection is that brand name trumps practicality at least 2 -1.

    As a business case, Tesla will lose money on every one. It is hard to believe Musk is prepared to take it in the shorts at the rate of 2,000 - 5,000 cars a week since he is already in a serious deficit.
    The biggest issue for Chevy is that the Bolt says "Chevy" to the "Tesla" brand. Tesla is a luxury brand for all intents, so this is the equivalent of putting the Chevy Cruze against the 3 Series. Even if the Cruze was better, 95% of the people will still prefer the BMW.

    Buying higher priced cars is less about making sense and more about desirability.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Agreed. Anything Tesla is aspirational. Anything Chevy is dumpster diving for many consumers, especially those with means.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    5000 a week production I believe that is BEYOND the total demand for ALL EV cars right now and I doubt that will change anytime soon UNLESS Petrol goes through the roof OR a LOT of countries start offering EV perks AND roll out MASSIVE infrastructure

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    All the pre order people thinking they will get a car in 2017 or 2018 will be disappointed. Unless the reviews are stellar and new over the air updates add new gimmicks, the newness/coolness will fade quickly, alternatives will increase and they will cancel orders in droves in 2018.

    As an aside, has anyone seen the model 3 interior? It's a bad joke and will assuredly get lambasted by any objective reviewer. Tesla fan boys will find a way to praise it, but not the average person.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by usa1 View Post
    As an aside, has anyone seen the model 3 interior? It's a bad joke and will assuredly get lambasted by any objective reviewer. Tesla fan boys will find a way to praise it, but not the average person.
    To be fair, the reviews of the Bolt interior have been less than stellar. "Cheaped out" comes to kind.

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by criticalmass View Post
    Agreed. Anything Tesla is aspirational. Anything Chevy is dumpster diving for many consumers, especially those with means.
    I think the real problem is they shouldn't be compared in the first place. The only reason the Bolt and Tesla are being compared is because they are electrics. It's akin to comparing the Chevy Cruze to the 3 Series simply because they both use gas engines....

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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by criticalmass View Post
    To be fair, the reviews of the Bolt interior have been less than stellar. "Cheaped out" comes to kind.
    IMO, it's definitely in Rubbermaid territory.
    Don't expect Model 3 to be much better. Tesla cannot lose money on them.
    Like the Bolt, all the $$$'s gonna be under the floor.
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    Re: No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackGTP View Post
    I think the real problem is they shouldn't be compared in the first place. The only reason the Bolt and Tesla are being compared is because they are electrics. It's akin to comparing the Chevy Cruze to the 3 Series simply because they both use gas engines....
    Have to disagree with respect to these 2 cars. Unlike Cruze vs 3 Series, here we have not only similar propulsion systems but also similar FE numbers, similar size, similar tech, similar pricing. Only real difference in this instance is that the Tesla name has cache and Chevy doesn't

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