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No Clue? Tesla Model 3 Production Estimates Hard To Fathom

8K views 75 replies 30 participants last post by  09W 
#1 ·
Inside EVs
May 17, 2017

Jonas warns investors that Model 3 deliveries are likely to be lower than Tesla’s forecast in 2017 and 2018. Tesla says that sales of the Model 3 should be in the 5-digit range for 2017 and 6-digit range for 2018, Jonas meanwhile disagrees. According to Jonas, Tesla will deliver no real volume of Model 3s in 2017.

Here’s Jonas’ statement of the Model 3:

“Model 3 expectations appear to have recovered substantially over the last 4 months. Earlier this year investor expectations for Model 3 hit a trough with most investors we spoke with at that time expecting zero deliveries of the model during 2017 A series of subsequent reiterations from management and the spotting of release candidates testing on public roads have increased expectations of timing and volume significantly.

Although we cannot quantify what the market expectation is at this point, we believe our forecast of 2k Model 3 deliveries this year is substantially below current market expectations. Looking to 2018, we believe our 90k volume forecast is also far below Street expectations, possibly one-half or one-third market expectations for Model 3 volume next year.”

Those figures are not even in the same ballpark as Tesla’s projections:

“Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”
 
#2 ·
Production begins mid 2017. Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later.
Mr. Jonas as you may know, is the Wall Street "go-to" guy on Tesla. He has been quite a bull on the company...until the past few weeks.

The Model 3 looks like it may be a winner - not sure if the sedan body was a wise choice over the hatchback style of the Model S. As the 2018 Buick Regal may prove, the "hatchback" may be on its way to becoming the new "sedan" here in the United States.

The above wording is from the Tesla website. So 400,000 reserved vehicles will be (let's say) "mostly" delivered by mid-2018 (or later as is stated)?

Talk about an ambitious ramp up! This is going to be interesting to watch, to say the least.

.
 
#30 ·
Those who shelled out money for a car that's no one knows when it'll be in production are really in love with Elon Musk. The whole thing looks so unrealistic that it's hard to believe. One thing I know, I do not trust Elon Musk. He's in it for the money and if he has to screw the people in the end, he'll do it w/o hesitation. Consumers Beware!
 
#3 ·
Wow, so they are planning to build 10,000 a week or 520,000 a year. That's pretty huge, will ongoing demand for an electric vehicle be enough to support that kind of production capacity? Meaning once the upfront pre-order glut is gone will there be such demand 4 or 5 years from now or will the factory be running at half capacity? I assume this is for world-wide demand, but still seems like a lot for a new brand in a new segment.
 
#62 ·
Wow, so they are planning to build 10,000 a week or 520,000 a year. That's pretty huge, will ongoing demand for an electric vehicle be enough to support that kind of production capacity? Meaning once the upfront pre-order glut is gone will there be such demand 4 or 5 years from now or will the factory be running at half capacity? I assume this is for world-wide demand, but still seems like a lot for a new brand in a new segment.[/QUOTE Don't ever believe what Tesla says because it rarely happens. I predict it will be another Tucker.
 
#6 ·
.....“Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”
He meant that they have "preparations" in place to accept all of the deposits for such a rate of production. The actual ability to produce the cars? Well, no. But they are thinking about it. So they have that going for them!
 
#7 ·
Model 3 may be more stylish than the Bolt, but not nearly as spacious and practical. It is not likely to quite match the FE of the Bolt either. So... it remains to be seen how many are suckers for the Tesla hype. More hip to say "I have a Tesla" than to say "I own a Bolt". When Bolt is available nationwide it will be interesting to see how the head to head competition works out. My projection is that brand name trumps practicality at least 2 -1.

As a business case, Tesla will lose money on every one. It is hard to believe Musk is prepared to take it in the shorts at the rate of 2,000 - 5,000 cars a week since he is already in a serious deficit.
 
#8 ·
The biggest issue for Chevy is that the Bolt says "Chevy" to the "Tesla" brand. Tesla is a luxury brand for all intents, so this is the equivalent of putting the Chevy Cruze against the 3 Series. Even if the Cruze was better, 95% of the people will still prefer the BMW.

Buying higher priced cars is less about making sense and more about desirability.
 
#11 ·
All the pre order people thinking they will get a car in 2017 or 2018 will be disappointed. Unless the reviews are stellar and new over the air updates add new gimmicks, the newness/coolness will fade quickly, alternatives will increase and they will cancel orders in droves in 2018.

As an aside, has anyone seen the model 3 interior? It's a bad joke and will assuredly get lambasted by any objective reviewer. Tesla fan boys will find a way to praise it, but not the average person.
 
#47 ·
I'd be happy to chime in as someone who currently drives an electric and has a deposit on a 3. First off, once you've gone electric, everything else feels like whip & buggy. I bought a Fiat 500e for $7k with 18,000 miles on it off lease and now, getting back in my Chrysler 300s, it feels sluggish. It is simply the nature of electric direct drive vs. ICE & transmission. Hybrids are crap simply because they don't provide that instant-on torque feel that electrics provide.

Second, the Bolt is not a competitor as muc has you want it to be. GM had the opportunity to make one. They could have developed the Bolt as a Caddy XT3, put a nicer interior, and available AWD, but they didn't. They wanted to be the first Everyman Electric. That is fine and dandy, but they won't be able to compete with a dual motor 3 performance-wise. And, let me tell you, FWD + instant-on torque makes for some seriously ugly torque steer.

Third, I don't 3 expect the base model to be an S. I expect it to be cheaper, but with likely plenty of upgrades so Tesla can get their ATP up. Every other manufacturer on the planet does it. Yep, you can buy a rwd XL F150. How many of those do you think Ford wants to sell? $35 to start, probably $70 for a maxed out dual motor 70PD version, which will still be an crap-ton less than a 100PD, just like an M2 is a crap-ton less than an M5.

Fourth, Tesla treats its cars like all modern technology, a continuous work in progress. That means if your car has the autonomous hardware, Tesla will constantly be upgrading the software to take advantage of it and the rest of your car. Generally speaking, big manufacturers don't operate in that fashion. Once it is out the door, development is essentially dead. The Bolt doesn't have the hardware, nor will it offer it anytime soon. Corporate counsel won't let them be as aggressive as Tesla is.

Tesla's biggest threat, IMHO, is Jaguar and the I-Pace in the near term, simply because Jaguar will likely offer very attractive lease rates on the I-Pace that Tesla is likely to be unable to match, which is how the majority of near-luxury cars are 'purchased.' And, trust me, no one will be cross shopping an I-Pace and a Bolt.
 
#48 ·
How dare you chime in with the perspective of someone who actually has a vested interest and a deposit on a Model 3! I'm sure a half-dozen folks who have no interest in Tesla but have nothing better to do than post repeatedly in every Tesla thread will be along to tell you how misguided you are to like what you like and how foolish you are to think you can spend your hard-earned money however you wish.

FWIW, I'm fairly certain you'll love your 3 and you won't give a hoot what anyone thinks.
 
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#50 ·
The biggest threat to Tesla will be cars like the new I-Pace. Not a direct Model 3 competitor, but if a well spec'd three is pushing $70K then the Jag imo is the more compelling of the two. Oh, and add in the fact the Jag will likely have been subjected to a more thorough and rigorous development program. When the German Electrics arrive, the bloom will definitely be off of the Tesla rose.

http://www.carscoops.com/2017/05/production-jaguar-i-pace-filmed-in.html
 
#51 ·
The biggest threat to Tesla will be cars like the new I-Pace. Not a direct Model 3 competitor, but if a well spec'd three is pushing $70K then the Jag imo is the more compelling of the two. Oh, and add in the fact the Jag will likely have been subjected to a more thorough and rigorous development program. When the German Electrics arrive, the bloom will definitely be off of the Tesla rose.

http://www.carscoops.com/2017/05/production-jaguar-i-pace-filmed-in.html
Curious as to why you believe the bolded part??? Every car Tesla produces is electric and their entire automotive development program is focused on electric propulsion. So, why would Jag have a more thorough and rigorous development program?

There's already a German electric here. I'll take the Bolt all day, everyday over the BMW i3.

Not sure I understand why so many people want to see Tesla fail. I think they may have overpromised with the Tesla 3, but I hope that they will be profitable sooner rather that later and become a successful American company.
 
#52 ·
Apple is premium -and- mass market because its products are polished -and- dependable.

Tesla's model 3 will struggle at the mass market level unless they can combine performance and electrification with Corolla-like dependability.

I hope they succeed. The odds are against them.
 
#60 ·
My biggest concern with Model 3 isn't the manufacturing process (although I think quality will be a bigger issue than some think for the average Joe) or the charging infrastructure, but the cost of commodities to mass produce that many batteries. You can have the biggest factory in the world, but you are still buying the Lithium on the open market. This isn't a great website/page (take it with a grain of salt) but the chart (couldn't get the chart to load on GMI) and historical pricing increase is eye popping.

https://www.metalary.com/lithium-price/

Its obviously a threat to all mainstream pricing models on the low end. High end/luxury can absorb the cost of batteries more readily.
 
#61 ·
My biggest concern with Model 3 isn't the manufacturing process (although I think quality will be a bigger issue than some think for the average Joe) or the charging infrastructure, but the cost of commodities to mass produce that many batteries. You can have the biggest factory in the world, but you are still buying the Lithium on the open market. This isn't a great website/page (take it with a grain of salt) but the chart (couldn't get the chart to load on GMI) and historical pricing increase is eye popping.

https://www.metalary.com/lithium-price/

Its obviously a threat to all mainstream pricing models on the low end. High end/luxury can absorb the cost of batteries more readily.

If Tesla/Panasonic, effectively corner the market, then it won't matter.
We don't know if Tesla/Panansonic has secured long-term pricing of raw materials or have to purchase on the spot market.

But the point of Gigafactory was the drive down the price of the battery. Supposedly, it's already hit < $125/kWh. We'll see though.
 
#74 ·
And here's how Tesla plans to quickly ramp up production:

Tesla to limit color, wheel size on early Model 3 sales
June 6, 2017 @ 8:42 pm
Alexandria Sage
Reuters...via Autonews,com

SAN FRANCISCO -- Buyers of Tesla Inc's upcoming Model 3 car will only get two choices in configuration, a policy that will let the company quickly ramp up production of its mass-market vehicle, CEO Elon Musk told investors on Tuesday.

"You just need to decide what color you want and what size wheels, at least for the initial production," Musk told shareholders at an annual meeting in Silicon Valley.

Hundreds of thousands of potential buyers put down refundable deposits on the Model 3. Buyers will be able to configure vehicles next month, Musk said.

Additional choices will become available, but he did not say when.
 
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