Inside EVs
May 17, 2017
May 17, 2017
Jonas warns investors that Model 3 deliveries are likely to be lower than Tesla’s forecast in 2017 and 2018. Tesla says that sales of the Model 3 should be in the 5-digit range for 2017 and 6-digit range for 2018, Jonas meanwhile disagrees. According to Jonas, Tesla will deliver no real volume of Model 3s in 2017.
Here’s Jonas’ statement of the Model 3:
“Model 3 expectations appear to have recovered substantially over the last 4 months. Earlier this year investor expectations for Model 3 hit a trough with most investors we spoke with at that time expecting zero deliveries of the model during 2017 A series of subsequent reiterations from management and the spotting of release candidates testing on public roads have increased expectations of timing and volume significantly.
Although we cannot quantify what the market expectation is at this point, we believe our forecast of 2k Model 3 deliveries this year is substantially below current market expectations. Looking to 2018, we believe our 90k volume forecast is also far below Street expectations, possibly one-half or one-third market expectations for Model 3 volume next year.”
Those figures are not even in the same ballpark as Tesla’s projections:
“Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.”