Market expects GM, F sales down again for the month

[JVal14]

GM, Ford monthly U.S. sales off again
By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:16 PM ET May 25, 2005
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors and Ford are slated to deliver their monthly sales checkup next week, with results likely reflecting the steady shift away from the heartland's most profitable, albeit aging, lineup of SUVs amid record gas prices.
Wall Street is looking for the two largest U.S. automakers to post sales declines and further production cuts as competitors, including DaimlerChrysler, continue to gnaw away at market share.

A month ago, new car and truck sales surprised industry observers with an annual sales rate of 17.46 million, according to Autodata, easily topping targets of 17 million vehicles. See full story.

While overall results in April were mostly strong, General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) and Ford (F: news, chart, profile) still turned in lower sales than the prior year. And analysts are expecting more of the same when car companies unveil their monthly totals on Wednesday.

"The three big Japanese automakers currently have great strength in each of their marques, while the domestic Big Three are burdened with many weak units," said Edmunds.com analyst Jesse Toprak.

"In fact, the Cadillac, Chrysler and Mercury brands are the only domestic nameplates we expect will have May 2005 sales outpace May 2004," he added. Edmunds.com put General Motors' unit sales decline at 4.8% and Ford's at 2.2%, with Chrysler the only one poised to show improvement, up 3.1%.

For the Japanese manufacturers, the automotive research Web site is expecting Nissan (NSANY: news, chart, profile) and Toyota (TM: news, chart, profile) to gain more than 17% each with Honda (HMC: news, chart, profile) up 2.4%.

Still, General Motors, which has struggled for months with lower sales, steep fixed costs and subsequent credit downgrades, will undoubtedly garner the heaviest scrutiny.

"Sliding market share, declining SUV sales, and a limited product pipeline suggest GM's woes are not on the verge of a near-term recovery," said UBS analyst Rob Hinchliffe in a note to clients, adding that he expects to hear about production cut plans as well.

Merrill Lynch's John Casesa said he expects to see only a 2% slip in GM sales, but year-over-year production declines will be the norm until the upcoming launch of the key GMT900 lineup, which includes the Tahoe, Escalade and Yukon.

"After four terrible share months, this will be relatively good news for GM," he said. "Nonetheless, with share down again in May, GM won't be able to close its inventory gap."

For Ford, a solid run from Chicago products like the Five Hundred and Freestyle along with higher incentive spending could bring some upside, Casesa said, although he still sees sales falling 3%, with market share down to 18.7%.

Casesa forecast that Ford will likely cut second-quarter production by 8%, which is below the company's 5% forecast, and by another 3% in the third quarter.

Separately, German-American auto giant DaimlerChrysler (DCX: news, chart, profile) is targeted to post another sales increase, cashing in on the steady success of popular new models like the Chrysler 300 and the Dodge Magnum.

[JVal14]

"Sliding market share, declining SUV sales, and a limited product pipeline suggest GM's woes are not on the verge of a near-term recovery," said UBS analyst Rob Hinchliffe

Definitely take this with a grain of salt since Robbie here seems to be smoking a bowl.

Merrill Lynch's John Casesa said .... year-over-year production declines will be the norm until the upcoming launch of the key GMT900 lineup

Nice to see that somebody can read the writing on the wall.

[tgagneguam]

Originally Posted by JVal14

Definitely take this with a grain of salt since Robbie here seems to be smoking a bowl.

What do you expect? He's an analyst, nothing more. If asked to actually run the General, my guess is the Company's fortunes would be far worse.

On one level, I cannot understand the success of Nissan. I'm not that impressed with many things from this Company (the Altima is not superlative to its competitors, nor is the Titan, nor is the Pathfinder, nor is the Quest, or several of the Infiniti offerings, or any other vehicle in its lineup), and I certainly don't think its products merit consistent double-digit sales rises month after month.

[IMPALAon20s]

Originally Posted by tgagneguam

What do you expect? He's an analyst, nothing more. If asked to actually run the General, my guess is the Company's fortunes would be far worse.

On one level, I cannot understand the success of Nissan. I'm not that impressed with many things from this Company (the Altima is not superlative to its competitors, nor is the Titan, nor is the Pathfinder, nor is the Quest, or several of the Infiniti offerings, or any other vehicle in its lineup), and I certainly don't think its products merit consistent double-digit sales rises month after month.

nissan/infiniti is actualy only japanese brand i do like. although i didnt like the taillights on the maxima, and i thought the altima didnt get enough of an update. titan styling is too over the top for my tastes, IMO with trucks, simple is better. keep in mind, i titan had its bad days, struggled when it first came out,think they are still overstocked though..reason being with limited cab options and limited engine options it doesn't pose much a threat to domestic fullsize trucks esp to the f150.

[IMPALAon20s]

Originally Posted by JVal14

Nice to see that somebody can read the writing on the wall.

heres article about the plant upgrading to produce the gmt900
Overtime no stranger for Flint Truck Plant.

[BigAls87Z28]

I also dont understand Nissan's rise in sales.
Its interior quality still lags behind even some of the worst domestic offerings, and not near the look, fit and finish of its other Asian compeditors.
Is it style? I think that outside of the Altima, the whole line up looks ugly as sin. Maxima is just...I cant even describe it, its just ugly. That ugly grill, thoes goofy headlights, and that interior.
Lets not get started on the Quest or Murano.
The trucks are ok, at least they had the marbles to actualy do a REAL full sized truck, unlike Toyota or Honda.
As for Infinity, I think there whole line up is pretty tight. G35's interior could use an infusion of money, but really its a nice line up. That QX56 SUV thought....looks like, and im gunna go to hell for this, like it has down syndrome.

Limited product pipe line? They have more things loaded into the clip, and ready to go then probably anyone out there. If the 900's launch with such a roar, we are talking big profits across the board. So if you want to save GM, buy a 900 truck.

[moman]

Originally Posted by IMPALAon20s

nissan/infiniti is actualy only japanese brand i do like. although i didnt like the taillights on the maxima, and i thought the altima didnt get enough of an update. titan styling is too over the top for my tastes, IMO with trucks, simple is better. keep in mind, i titan had its bad days, struggled when it first came out,think they are still overstocked though..reason being with limited cab options and limited engine options it doesn't pose much a threat to domestic fullsize trucks esp to the f150.

For the record, I don't much care for Nissan either. The Altima was a sensation when it first came out, but that was 4 years ago. Maxima is nice but overpriced. 350Z is nice but a niche car.

I don't care what any analyst says, I do not think that Nissan Titan and Ford F150 are direct competitors for the majority of buyers. Many of the people who buy a Titan (or Tundra, Ridgeline) are buyers who are moving up from import cars. These are not the kind of poeple who would buy a F150. Once you are used to the fit and finish (or blandness) of a Camry, Accord, Maxima, etc. you will find a F150 to be spartan and utilitarian. Therefore, the Titan, Ridgeline, and Tundra harken to those people who want a truck with the typical foreign fit and finish.

There are also purists like myself who wouldnt' consider buying a NIssan over a Chevy even if it were 5,000$ cheaper. I bet that full size trucks have the highest owner loyalty of any vehicle segment.

That's why Chevy, Ford, and Dodge haven't hardly noticed a ripple since the foreign trucks started becoming true competitors. Sure, there are a few people who would look at both the F150 and Titan and decide to go with the titan, but I can guarantee there are a lot more Titans in the suburbs than on the farms.

There are some people on these boards that complain about the interior of the Chevy trucks, but for the upteenth time, Chevy does not and should not focus on this crowd. They can do incremental improvements, but DVD navigation systems and woodgrain trim, no way. Traditional truck buyers have been with them from day one and keep the line moving now. It's the trend-followers that wreck havoc on forecasts and markets.

[BigAls87Z28]

I don't care what any analyst says, I do not think that Nissan Titan and Ford F150 are direct competitors for the majority of buyers. Many of the people who buy a Titan (or Tundra, Ridgeline) are buyers who are moving up from import cars. These are not the kind of poeple who would buy a F150. Once you are used to the fit and finish (or blandness) of a Camry, Accord, Maxima, etc. you will find a F150 to be spartan and utilitarian. Therefore, the Titan, Ridgeline, and Tundra harken to those people who want a truck with the typical foreign fit and finish.

I dont know about that. F150's interior easily outclasses the very poor quality of the Titan. Tundra and Ridgeline's interior isnt too great either. I say that right now, the F150 is the best truck out on the market, but that title wont stand for long.
I belive that Dodge was actualy losing out on sales due to the Titan.
I dont think that Titan can keep up with the near million units that the GM and Ford trucks plants can put out.

[cfch3399]

I agree. If I were to buy a "Japanese" car (g__ forbid) it would be a Nissan. Nissan is for those who want to buy good foreign cars without have to drive the same boring Toyotas and Hondas that everyone else has. Mechanically, Nissan's are excellent, even though the interiors are terrible and the exteriors so so.

Originally Posted by IMPALAon20s

nissan/infiniti is actualy only japanese brand i do like. although i didnt like the taillights on the maxima, and i thought the altima didnt get enough of an update. titan styling is too over the top for my tastes, IMO with trucks, simple is better. keep in mind, i titan had its bad days, struggled when it first came out,think they are still overstocked though..reason being with limited cab options and limited engine options it doesn't pose much a threat to domestic fullsize trucks esp to the f150.

[saturnsteve]

Not really a surprise here is it people.

[IMPALAon20s]

Originally Posted by moman

That's why Chevy, Ford, and Dodge haven't hardly noticed a ripple since the foreign trucks started becoming true competitors. Sure, there are a few people who would look at both the F150 and Titan and decide to go with the titan, but I can guarantee there are a lot more Titans in the suburbs than on the farms.

well, when the titan first came out and "auto writers" were WARNING domestic trucks to look over their shoulder. i had some pretty harsh comments for the titan.

see, im fron texas, unlike california, this is where you prove yourself in the fullsize truck market. thats why i think toyota built a plant in san antonio, attempt to overcome being tagged "import truck", since its assembled in texas. they also purchased naming rights to the new houston rockets stadium, the "toyota center", btw-most people in houston dont care for the name. but i have the same opinion that most people who have full size trucks have, which is that the titan is overdoing it in styling and looks odd. i recall at a bbq i was at, surrounded by ford and chevy trucks/suv's, (thats what texas bbq's look like), one person saw a titan drive by and said "see, that there is a truck for the sissyboy,tie wearing, antiqueing, starbucks sipping type". and thats the thinking that nissan hasn't realized it has to overcome. that person had an escalade ext on 24's BTW

similar to this, probably doesn't matter, but im bored.

[Infiniti Z350]

The Titan is going to be come more competitive in time. There have been talks of a long-bed crew cab option and a diesel engine offering in 2007. And I think they may be offering 3/4 ton models then as well.

[JVal14]

Originally Posted by Infiniti Z350

The Titan is going to be come more competitive in time. There have been talks of a long-bed crew cab option and a diesel engine offering in 2007. And I think they may be offering 3/4 ton models then as well.

That and Infiniti will be Nissan's greatest asset in it's fight for Asian supremecy in the U.S. market. The made a real full-size truck (not a wannabe like Toyota); and now, just as Toyota plans to make the Tundra for real, Nissan is already broadening their solid package to offer everything that the domestics do. For once, Toyota was caught way behind the curve. I won't even mention Honda.

[moman]

Originally Posted by BigAls87Z28

I dont know about that. F150's interior easily outclasses the very poor quality of the Titan. Tundra and Ridgeline's interior isnt too great either. I say that right now, the F150 is the best truck out on the market, but that title wont stand for long.
I belive that Dodge was actualy losing out on sales due to the Titan.
I dont think that Titan can keep up with the near million units that the GM and Ford trucks plants can put out.

I didn't include Dodge in my post since they are a special case. Dodge has a loyal but small following. Where I come from, there is one Dodge for every 10 Chevys/Fords. It's a cult following (in a good way) in that Dodge buyers are loyal, but it's not easy to get into the "crowd". I can certainly see Dodge losing out to Nissan. If it weren't for the Hemi commercials, their truck cause would have been lost a long time ago.

Doesn't matter if the Titan, Tundra, or Ridgeline's interior is top of the line. It has a far-east nameplate, therefore in the eyes of most media honchos, it is worthy of it's weight in gold. Of course there is nothing special about the Titan, but I'd bet if you ask any Titan owner, he/she is more than happy with the Titan is not likely to consider a Ford/Chevy product.

I personally think the Silverado is the truck to beat, but we all have our favorites..

Originally Posted by IMPALAon20s

(thats what texas bbq's look like), one person saw a titan drive by and said "see, that there is a truck for the sissyboy,tie wearing, antiqueing, starbucks sipping type".

That's my point, Titan is a truck for 1) people turned off by the image of traditional truck owners (yuppies) OR 2) people who wouldn't buy a traditional truck but decided it would be easier to haul plywood once a year with it (yuppies)

Titan, Tundra, and Ridgeline are trucks for the suburbs. I have yet to know anyone who owns one that previously owned a big-three truck.

Ford and Chevy do not need to worry much. Sticking to their roots will keep their core buyers happy.

[johnny smallblock]

I don't pretend to be truck guy, but I think moman is right; because Japanese trucks are Japanese, most media commentators/reviewer think it's worth its weight in gold. It's a shame because they're not better looking, more capable, or more reliable. It's an area where, hands down, the American-made products are both better made and sell better. But I doubt you'll be hearing a story about that anytime soon.