GM Stock In old Ford Territory - $12.91 and Still Falling...

[wescoent]

Originally Posted by AMERICA 123

Exactly.

Depending on this and that, you can now take some day trading money and go long.

Next three months are going to offer some 'interesting' opportunities concerning GM.

VERY interesting opportunities.

Assuming GM survives the next 3 years and the Volt is the hit we think it will be, we could see some millionaires made through GM stock.

[2002 Caddy]

I hope you are right... We already had one crack pot set the
"woulda, coulda, shoulda" price of 14.77... and we are presently a buck an a half off of that.

The challenge is that I can't see any bright light at the end of this tunnel. Truck sales are toast
Small car sales are weak
Pontiac is in trouble
Buick is dead in NA
Cadillac has only one car that sells
No replacement for the POS Aveo or uncompetitive Cobalt for 2 years
The Volt is over a year out
The Camaro is several months out
GM dealers are going to "eat it" big time on truck lease returns in the next 6-8 months.
There is a ton of inventory in the pipe right now and GM is about to "fire sell" it off with zero% financing.

When the June sales number are published in ~3 weeks the stock will take another $2.50 hit and will hover near 10.75. And even if those number look good... we will get 2nd quarter financials in late July... And the market will rehash the truck disaster.

I don't see any way of avoiding a $10.50 per share by August. God I hope that I'm wrong.

Speaking as someone who owns lots of this stock... I would LOVE you all to go out and buy up lots of shares and drive the price up... But if you are looking for free advice... I wouldn't buy any of this stock until if gets to 10.50... And then do so on the gamble that if the stock dips to 9.90... The board might FINALLY WAKE-UP... and Fire Rick... When this happens the stock will rebound to ~15.00.

Of course what I just described is not investing... its called gambling.

[wescoent]

Originally Posted by 2002 Caddy

I hope you are right... We already had one crack pot set the
"woulda, coulda, shoulda" price of 14.77... and we are presently a buck an a half off of that.

The challenge is that I can't see any bright light at the end of this tunnel. Truck sales are toast
Small car sales are weak
Pontiac is in trouble
Buick is dead in NA
Cadillac has only one car that sells
No replacement for the POS Aveo or uncompetitive Cobalt for 2 years
The Volt is over a year out
The Camaro is several months out
GM dealers are going to "eat it" big time on truck lease returns in the next 6-8 months.
There is a ton of inventory in the pipe right now and GM is about to "fire sell" it off with zero% financing.

When the June sales number are published in ~3 weeks the stock will take another $2.50 hit and will hover near 10.75. And even if those number look good... we will get 2nd quarter financials in late July... And the market will rehash the truck disaster.

I don't see any way of avoiding a $10.50 per share by August. God I hope that I'm wrong.

Speaking as someone who owns lots of this stock... I would LOVE you all to go out and buy up lots of shares and drive the price up... But if you are looking for free advice... I wouldn't buy any of this stock until if gets to 10.50... And then do so on the gamble that if the stock dips to 9.90... The board might FINALLY WAKE-UP... and Fire Rick... When this happens the stock will rebound to ~15.00.

Of course what I just described is not investing... its called gambling.

GM's main challenge right now is to reorganize its product line to the new reality of $4.00 per gallon gas and the consequent lower truck sales, take the huge hit on depreciated off-lease vehicles, and basically be able to pay the bills until the Volt hits the streets.

The Volt and E-Flex is GM's iMac, iPod, and iPhone rolled into one product. If that launches flawlessly and beats Toyota to market, then GM is back in a huge way.

The issue is surviving until then. Ford has a big pot of cash to sit on, and has Kirk Kerkorian's capital to live on until they adjust, which is why I'm confident they will survive this.

GM... I'm not as sure.

[Butz]

Originally Posted by wescoent

GM's main challenge right now is to reorganize its product line to the new reality of $4.00 per gallon gas and the consequent lower truck sales, take the huge hit on depreciated off-lease vehicles, and basically be able to pay the bills until the Volt hits the streets.

The Volt and E-Flex is GM's iMac, iPod, and iPhone rolled into one product. If that launches flawlessly and beats Toyota to market, then GM is back in a huge way.

The issue is surviving until then. Ford has a big pot of cash to sit on, and has Kirk Kerkorian's capital to live on until they adjust, which is why I'm confident they will survive this.

GM... I'm not as sure.

GM needs to reinvent itself. Kill off the SUVs (GMC and Hummer) and flood the market with small and fuel efficient fun-to-drive cars, then advertise it. Let people know that GM isn't just an SUV and truck company.

[drew770]

Wall Street will not reward GM with a higher stock price until GM can show them that it means business with its turnaround.
Closing plants when GM still has to pay the employees will not solve it for Wall Street.

I betcha Wall Street is looking at something big and bold from GM in order to move the stock.

A brand or two closing and a more models being discontinued will do the job.

[silvergoat2k6]

Originally Posted by ksr

Starting to sound like a good buying opportunity.

The same was being said 2 weeks ago when the stock was down to $17.

GM's stock price is getting beat like they stole somethiing...

[Whitesky]

Originally Posted by Bvonscott

Buy it now while its low... its going to go back up eventually.

LOL. Sure, tell that to the people that owned the original KMART stock. Terrible advice.

[2002 Caddy]

Originally Posted by drew770

A brand or two closing and a more models being discontinued will do the job.

So would firing the CEO.

[Rocket 88]

Originally Posted by ksr

Starting to sound like a good buying opportunity.

I think Waggoner was just unfortunate enough to be head of GM while oil prices skyrocketed.

I thought it was buying opportunity when it dropped below $30. Now my wife won't let me sleep in the same room. Thanks GM!

[Buickman]

Originally Posted by 2002 Caddy

So would firing the CEO.

I like your style, persistence, and common sense.

[member12]

Wow.

Friggin Mitsubishi could pick GM up for cheap now.

Maybe it's time for Wagoner to find a new job.

[windvale]

Originally Posted by ksr

I think Waggoner was just unfortunate enough to be head of GM while oil prices skyrocketed.

Winners make their own luck.

My father used to say "the harder I worked...the luckier I got"

[Geotpf]

Originally Posted by wescoent

VERY interesting opportunities.

Assuming GM survives the next 3 years and the Volt is the hit we think it will be, we could see some millionaires made through GM stock.

Volt will not be a source of profit for GM in anything other than a PR standpoint. Either it will sell in very small numbers at $40,000 and make GM zero, or sell in large numbers at $20,000 and have GM lose $20k per car sold.

Toyota doesn't make the bulk of their profit from the Prius; they make it from Corollas and Camrys. GM's mass market vehicle line (the GMT-900s) probably will have a permanent 50% sales cut. They need a replacement for that; the Volt ain't it.

[mang01]

Originally Posted by Rocket 88

I thought it was buying opportunity when it dropped below $30. Now my wife won't let me sleep in the same room. Thanks GM!

I have been watching it too - more because the Aussie dollar versus the US one has been rising, making it cheaper for us to buy - even signed up with a US online trading company but didn't buy (at $21 and 90c to 1 of yours..). So glad I didn't (our dollar is pushing 96c now too).

[SierraGS]

It will be in "New" Ford territory (under $5.00) if they cut another division.

I think the dividend cut is mostly priced in, but have no fear GM will find a way to get under $5.00.

Nobody does cutting better than GM.