Forecast: GM Still Tops In 2010

[nsap]

Forecast: GM Still Tops In 2010

TOKYO -- General Motors still will be building more cars and trucks than Toyota Motor Corp. in 2010, according to a forecast by Global Insight Inc.

The prediction disputes the widely held view that a rapidly surging Toyota will pass GM to become the world's largest automaker in the next two or three years.

By 2010, GM's output will be 9.31 million vehicles to Toyota's 9.16 million, says Global Insight, a respected economic forecasting company in London.

Toyota's sales will grow faster than GM's between now and 2010. But GM's lead and its projected sales growth, mainly in Asia, will keep it ahead, according to the forecast.

In 2004, GM sold 8,089,551 vehicles to Toyota's 6,707,600. If GM's alliance partners' sales are added to its total, GM's sales tally rises to 12,020,955.

Counting production rather than sales, Global Insight estimates GM's 2004 output at 8.67 million. It says Toyota's production was 7.55 million last year, or 1.12 million behind GM's.

By 2010, it predicts the difference will have narrowed to 150,000 units. That is equivalent to about one year's production at an assembly plant on a single shift.

During those six years, Toyota will have raised its output by about 1.6 million vehicles, according to the forecast. "I thought this was pretty impressive from Toyota's viewpoint," says Global Insight analyst Ashvin Chotai.

On the other hand, he says, "It will be difficult for Toyota to grow faster than this, considering management constraints and impact on margins."

Toyota already is the market leader in Japan and Southeast Asia, so it has "limited scope for market share increases" there, he says. Chotai says Toyota has "the best growth prospects in China," where it lags GM, "and our forecasts for Toyota in India are also fairly bullish."

Continue Reading...
http://www.autonews.com/article.cms?articleId=53347

[jro4566]

Good news in a sense, but it's hard to predict who will in fact be number one by 2010.

[ByTheLake]

I'm less concerned about GM maintaining its #1 position ... much more concerned about GM's product mix.

If GM turns out the best designed, best engineered vehicles for a good price, I don't mind if they are #1 or #2. If GM can focus non-stop on the customer, it will be okay. GM cannot become distracted by who it sees in its rear view mirror.

[awalbert88]

I still don't see Toyota getting that close to GM, at least not by 2010. Toyota is starting to experience growing pains, and because of their current lineup being so uninspired, if they start to lose the perception of superior quality (which has been proven many a time to be only a perception), they will have a tough time adding market share hand over fist.

[Hudson]

Originally Posted by awalbert88

I still don't see Toyota getting that close to GM, at least not by 2010. Toyota is starting to experience growing pains, and because of their current lineup being so uninspired, if they start to lose the perception of superior quality (which has been proven many a time to be only a perception), they will have a tough time adding market share hand over fist.

What "growing pains?"

[TaHoE]

Originally Posted by Hudson

What "growing pains?"

The only thing that I can possibly relate to "Growing Pains" and Toyota is the recent plague or recalls, but that is really all I see...and even that isn't momentus.

[cfch3399]

Oh OK, so Toyota won't pass GM in the next 2 or 3 years but in 5. How reliable can these "predictions" be anyway.

[jokuvaan]

Profit matters, not market share.

[Cortazzo]

It doesn't matter if GM loses the #1 spot, all it would do is hurt the pride of a lot of folks. If they lose the #1 spot in the USA, then that would be a big deal, but not globally. Isn't it funny how Toyota makes 2/3 of their profit in the USA to fund their global expansion, while GM and Ford make all of their money abroad or in finance to survive in their home markets?

[New_Mexico_Sunset_on_Rt66]

An unknown at this point is, what will be the public reaction to the new products from the 'General.

[saturnsteve]

Originally Posted by jokuvaan

Profit matters, not market share.

They both matter a whole lot. GM should dominate the market. In this world, the world after 9/11, I would never buy an import car again!!!

[TaHoE]

Originally Posted by saturnsteve

They both matter a whole lot. GM should dominate the market. In this world, the world after 9/11, I would never buy an import car again!!!

Not to sound crude, but it took over 3,000 deaths for you to realize that?

[Taycron]

The only growing pains Toyota will experience will be when their unions get as bad as GM's.

[Hemidakota]

If they are basing there so-called analysis on 2005 groweth, sales change as buyers habit change. Let alone the move of others biting into Toyotas sales as time progresses. Hyundia is already pushing sales to the toyota levels in Korea and making more moves in Asia to do the same. So much for that analysis.

GM needs to move to streamline the corporation and make the move into every nation. Market the vehicles to that culture and not US.

[dindak]

GM can hold #1 indefinitely if they fix the biz. Toyota is slipping in quality and no car company keeps growing forever. At some point they are bound to screw up.