Speaking at a University of Michigan conference today about the government’s 2025 fuel economy standards, Jeff Alson said the agency has always performed “routine audits” of the tests, which automakers conduct themselves.
But higher gasoline prices have highlighted discrepancies between the ratings and the fuel economy that drivers achieve.
Alson said the EPA expects real-world average fuel economy in 2025 to be about 40 mpg, up from about 20 mpg in 2010 and a projected 27 mpg in 2016.
Alson provided a few more EPA forecasts:
• Lightweight materials will reduce vehicle mass by 8 percent on average by 2025 because of corporate average fuel economy standards.
• About 90 percent of 2025 models will have downsized, turbocharged powertrains and eight-speed transmissions.
• Electric vehicles will account for just 2 percent of the market in the 2025 model year.
I could see that statement as being true if he is refering to pure BEV's. A 2% market sounds about right depending on how fast battery technology develops.
However vehicles with partial electrification like Hybrids, Plugin Hybrids and EREV's I think will also carve out a nice large market share by then.
Not sure what they consider "electric" - but I'd think a vehicle would have to be capable of running a substantial amount if not all miles on battery power. The Volt, and ELR which are capable of being driven a very high percentage of miles without gasoline (if used as designed) and of course pure electrics qualify. Most, if not all Hybrids (Prius, Civic, etc.) do not. Honda hybrids do not have the ability to move with the engine off. The coming plug-in Accord will change that, but I'm not sure even it will qualify as "electric." Certainly, e-Assist does not. I don't think they are including electric-assisted in the 2%
In any case, I'm sure Elon Musk will have a tweet or two to say about this...
Hmm, that's only 12 years from now. So many variables plus an uncertain formula, so I have to go pure crystal ball. And what is "the market"? United States? The World?
In the U.S., if it's not 10% (including PHEV, EREV and EV) by then I'll be at least disappointed, if not surprised.
FEVs or FCEVs will be the dominant electrified player by 2025 globally.
Hopefully, here as well, else we will have once again fallen behind.
As others have said, 2.1 % for BEVs sounds 'believable' although with regard to what 'market' might be up in the air.
If it mirrors what we have today for anything with a battery add section, then it will be basically all about fifteen US cities and their surrounding area - with most of those on the West Coast and the LA / SF regions accounting for almost a full third + maybe Japan but accompanied by a truly impressive and much larger FC presence and adoption - or maybe that will just crowd most of the battery stuff all the way out.
And that assumes the massive subsidization effort and propaganda continues.
Point is..... rest of the world ain't buyin' it and all the garbage behind it nor are they willing to let a very incomplete and very flawed approach to the LA Basin air quality problems dictate their approach.
This specific kind of deadend happens here from time to time -
Jus' remember, it took up close and personal encounters with older, mildly improved MIG 15 aircraft aka the MIG 17 + the MIG 21 to get our Fighter aircraft programs back to reality. ( Well, that - and one ( very fine ) Naval Aviator willing to sacrifice his career for the good of the country. )
And jus' think, they were headed towards a B70 / F12 / F111 future......along with 'Atoms for Peace'.
That's a big word here ' Reality '.
Hopefully, we have the equivalent of an F8U, an A4D, and an A6(F) around - or else.......... a Tom Swift Jr.
2% of 15M is 300k cars a year. That sounds like a lot to me. How many EVs sold in 2012? 30k? That's approximately a 25% growth per year. All these numbers are ROMs, but they give you an idea of how it's possible.
The only way anyone could make such a prediction would be to take into account the expected advancements of IC engines, the cost of fuel (gasoline, diesel, alcohol, etc), the cost of electricity, the expected advancements in battery technology, and the extent of the recharging infrastructure not to mention personal preferences. Notice I didn't mention government actions intended to influence vehicle buyers.
I completely agree with this prediction. Unless there is a major battery technology breakthrough, the EV market share will remain constant and ICE vehicles will continue to dominate the roads.
If one were truly to peruse the absolutely mind boggling sums of money that have evaporated into thin air on the back of the electrification movement one would begin to ask the very important question of who stands to benefit FINANCIALLY from this electrification push?
I can see 2% being on the "MONEY" for Battery ONLY electrics Because even if Battery size/density go WAY up there is the ISSUE of getting the "CAPACITY" filled with house hold electrics not to mention the Electrical system upgrades to "FUEL" quick charge filling stations at a rate acceptable for the average driver
I believe in the same time Hybrids of various types (voltec included) will be 25%+ of the market
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