Detroit's dreadful December

[Media!]

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...lDecember.aspx

By BusinessWeek

The auto industry is on track to end the calendar year much as it has spent the rest of 2006: in a slump and observing the stark contrast between the ongoing success of Toyota and the still-plummeting sales and market share of Detroit's Big Three.

Preliminary figures released last week by analysts at Edmunds.com show the industry at large will be down 6.2% for the final month of 2006 -- to 1.38 million new vehicles sold -- compared with December 2005. Those results would translate into total industry sales for 2006 of 16.46 million units, down 2.8% from 16.93 million last year.


Standard & Poor's, meanwhile, estimates that 2006 auto sales will settle at around 16.6 million units. But Efraim Levy, a senior auto industry analyst at S&P, says next year's figures could drop even farther, to 16.4 million units. (Like BusinessWeek, S&P is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP, news, msgs). A rising star in Japan

It's been an exceptionally difficult year for domestic automakers, which have been occupied by high-profile labor buyouts and high-impact production cuts in response to declining sales and market share.

High fuel costs didn't help: According to the Energy Information Administration, gasoline peaked just above $3 a gallon nationally in late July and early August, knocking the wind out of the auto buying season.

The singular blazing bright spot is Toyota Motor (TM, news, msgs). The company is forging ahead to nab the No. 2 spot in the United States from Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) next summer. It could also top General Motors (GM, news, msgs) globally in 2007.

Toyota's sales for the last month of the year will probably be up by 11.4%, to 218,000 units, with market share increasing to 15.7%, up from 13.7% during the same period last year, according to Edmunds.com.

......................More at the Link above - They actually call GM the one domestic bright spot....so it isn't such a negative article.

[tgagneguam]

I've been waiting 20 very long years for the headlines to change. Maybe 2007 will be the charm?!

[espo19047]

Originally Posted by espo19047

The one domestic bright spot is General Motors, which is likely to hold its ground on the strength of new products.

Toprak expects GM's adjusted December sales to be off from last year by 1.5%, to 365,000 units. But market share is actually up. Edmunds.com predicts that figure will rise slightly, to 26.4%, up nearly 2% from the preceding month and up from 26.1% during the same period last year.

I just wanted people to see this.

[hunchman]

Originally Posted by JBsZ06

GM will turn this around...

I can't say about who will have the number one sales spot but at a certain point you gotta say who gives a *****.

Just make great product and sell it at a good fair price..

Let the consumer do the rest.

GM's got a hell of a lineup coming very shortly.

Favorite GM vehicles...

Corvette
Corvette Z06
Solstice GXP
Solstice
Sky redline
Sky
Aura
G6
Outlook
Enclave
Acadia
CTS
CTS V
Escalade
Tahoe
Malibu


Thats a lot of vehicles to have that an enthusiast such as myself would be proud to own...

Add to that....the upcoming Camaro, RWD Impala SS, the turbo HHR and even the sport Equinox isn't bad...same can be said for the Envoy. I had two so far and like them ..(I just can't have a third in row)

My point is ....GM has a hell of a lineup in my opinion....

The only thing holding them back is the uninformed General publics perception of the utilitarian nature of its vehiles...

They take a beating and keep on ticking....like a dam timex watch...

American cars can take abuse like no foreign car....

JMO

You're right GM does have a great lineup of vehicles no doubt. However what does GM have if and when gas prices go through the roof again. This is what worries me most because camaros won't cut it if and when this happens.

[MCGARRETT]

Could be the weather, the longtime domestic powerhouses of the north and midwest are really getting snowed in, while places like California and Florida, which tend to lean towards imports, especially in the highly populated areas, are all bright and sunny.

[sigma]

Originally Posted by MCGARRETT

Could be the weather, the longtime domestic powerhouses of the north and midwest are really getting snowed in, while places like California and Florida, which tend to lean towards imports, especially in the highly populated areas, are all bright and sunny.

Yet, even with those factors to consider GM still managed to improve its marketshare. Impressive, eh?

[t-rex]

Sadly I can't see 2007 being the turnaround year for Detroit.

DCX
The good: only new buzzworthy product is the 4-door Wrangler
The bad: Compass/Patriot and Commander aren't selling well. Bread-and-butter truck and minivan sales are slumping. I see neither Sebring nor Aspen setting sales charts ablaze.
The ugly: possibility of UAW woes

FoMoCo
The good: Edge and MkX will probably succeed. Mulally will more than like do for Ford management what Lutz is doing for GM's products.
The bad: Cars that should be succeeding, like the Fusion triplets, aren't. FiveHundred and Freestyle are sales disasters. Half the company's products are years past their sell-by date with no replacement in sight. New products on the horizon don't seem to be all that interesting either.
The ugly: Slashing jobs and closing plants may help keep Ford afloat, but it doesn't exactly send a message of confidence to the car-buying public.

General Motors
The good: GM are getting a fair shake by the media on the new products, leaving potential for GM to shake its poor reputation. Even some ardent anti-domestic buyers are giving the Aura, CTS, and Outlook/Acadia serious consideration. The new fullsize trucks may potentially grab an bigger share of the truck market than predecessors.
The bad: New products are coming in trickles instead of waves. The must-have products are still 2-3 years away, and GM are bleeding in the meantime. Plus there's little guarantee that crucial new products like the '08 Malibu and CTS will be runaway hits (which they need to be).
The ugly: the strength of GM's new products exacerbates how crappy the rest of the lineup is. Even if sales of the new good products take off, there are still countless heaps like LaCrosse, Grand Prix, and CSV's to get out the door. Rest of product line are half-baked efforts like Equinox, Colorado/Canyon, GMT360s and Lucerne/DTS.

2007 won't be Detroit's turnaround year. Ford will likely sink deeper, while GM and DCX will probably either level off or slow the decline. GM have some excellent and exciting new products on the horizon that may help it make a serious comeback that Ford and DCX probably won't. But that's still a few years down the road. Throw in the possibility of a few unexpected socio-political situations and '07 may turn out to be a very interesting year.

It's always darkest before the dawn....

[fenderbender]

Interesting, so did Chevy pull ahead of Ford in sales?

[Havasavana]

Originally Posted by t-rex

2007 won't be Detroit's turnaround year. Ford will likely sink deeper, while GM and DCX will probably either level off or slow the decline. GM have some excellent and exciting new products on the horizon that may help it make a serious comeback that Ford and DCX probably won't. But that's still a few years down the road. Throw in the possibility of a few unexpected socio-political situations and '07 may turn out to be a very interesting year.

How about 'socio-political-enviro'?

[armycam68]

Yes, it's true. I was in our local Chevy Dealer for recall service on my 04 Colorado. It's a small dealer in Western Pennsylvania. The salesman told me that they had sold just one new vehicle in the month of December. It was a vehicle that was ordered in November. They had sold just 5 or 6 used units for the month.
In my opinion, it's partly the poor styling in GM vehicles, but the economy is terrible!
When WALMART is the biggest employer in the Country.........those folks can't afford a MEXICAN built CHEVY..........get the point??????
I would trade my 0-4 Colorado, but the only improvement would be new paint and a new 3.7 liter motor that uses more fuel. I could trade my 04 Impala, but the dealer wants $15,000 difference on an 07. He has an 06 Hertz program car on the lot for $16,000 so for another $1000 I can by the Hertz car and keep my 04 IMPALA. None of this makes sense to me, but I guess this is way cars are not selling!

[sigma]

Originally Posted by t-rex

Sadly I can't see 2007 being the turnaround year for Detroit.
General Motors
The good: GM are getting a fair shake by the media on the new products, leaving potential for GM to shake its poor reputation. Even some ardent anti-domestic buyers are giving the Aura, CTS, and Outlook/Acadia serious consideration. The new fullsize trucks may potentially grab an bigger share of the truck market than predecessors.

Don't forget the GMT900 SUV's which are also gaining marketshare. The MCE'ed SRX has seen improvements in its sales numbers. Combined with the new CTS and Malibu coming out this fall and an MCE of the Cobalt/G5 sometime for the '08 model year, there is lots of good news coming from GM this year.

The bad: New products are coming in trickles instead of waves. The must-have products are still 2-3 years away, and GM are bleeding in the meantime. Plus there's little guarantee that crucial new products like the '08 Malibu and CTS will be runaway hits (which they need to be).

If by trickle you mean the W-Bodies and G-Bodies die by the '09/10 model years and are replaced by Zeta, meaning in 5 years GM has completely overhauled its car line up faster than any manufacturer has in history. That's an impressive accomplishment considering GMNA's size. So sure the new product is just trickling out.

The ugly: the strength of GM's new products exacerbates how crappy the rest of the lineup is. Even if sales of the new good products take off, there are still countless heaps like LaCrosse, Grand Prix, and CSV's to get out the door. Rest of product line are half-baked efforts like Equinox, Colorado/Canyon, GMT360s and Lucerne/DTS.

The CSV's are heaps but there production has stopped, so the only one's left to sell are the ones sitting on dealers lots. They aren't bad vans they were just never competitive. The Grand Prix and the LaCrosse, by the same token, aren't bad cars; they just aren't competitive. Same goes for the GMT355 pickups and the GMT360's.

The sad thing about the GMT360's is they are an platform enhancement, interior overhaul and 6speed tranny away from being class leading products. The Atlas 4.2 I6 is a fantastic engine. When the platform was updated and modified for the Trailblazer SS and the Saab 9-7 the critics raved about how much better it was.

I disagree with the Lucerne and DTS being listed here because sales and reviews indicate that both are extremely competitive products with both having won praise from critics. Just because the car wasn't built to drive on Nuremberg doesn't mean that its not competitive.

2007 won't be Detroit's turnaround year. Ford will likely sink deeper, while GM and DCX will probably either level off or slow the decline. GM have some excellent and exciting new products on the horizon that may help it make a serious comeback that Ford and DCX probably won't. But that's still a few years down the road. Throw in the possibility of a few unexpected socio-political situations and '07 may turn out to be a very interesting year.

Again, I disagree up to a point. I think we see GM gain some marketshare up to say an average of 26-26.5% up from the roughly 25% marketshare this year as the Lambda's, Malibu/Aura, CTS, GMT900's (both SUV's and trucks) continue their roll out.

[mbukukanyau]

u can get 0% APR for 06, Toyota Trucks and Some Serious cash on the hood if you live in San Diego County

[dlr]

The northeast was brutal this year. New vehicle sales were dead. No strong incentives to pull people out.

I think part of GM's philosophy of not having big incentives is to shake out some dealers on the financial edge. GM mentioned the NE region especially is over dealered.

Have a tough year or 2 to thin the herd while at the same time promote value pricing.

In the long run it would probably be cheaper for GM to do this rather than offer buy-outs like they did with Olds dealers.

[usa1]

Originally Posted by armycam68

In my opinion, it's partly the poor styling in GM vehicles, but the economy is terrible!

The economy is not terrible. No data supports this conslusion. If you mean the economy if terrible for high school drop outs or only high school graduates, I would agree.

Mark

[bone]

GM will maintain or slightly improve market-share at Ford's and Chrysler's expense in 2007. Their(GM) sales will fall due to increasing fuel prices(it's going to happen)and Toyota's relentless push to be number 1. What I would like to see from GM in 2007:

1.Build a more powerful and more efficient Aveo that includes a new 5-door hatch.
2.Find the production capacity to sell 100,000 plus Saturn Astras.
3.Strongly advertise the new Aura,Outlook,and Acadia in all markets for at least 18 months.
4.Keep the Solstice,Cobalt,Corvette, G6 GXP,and CTS-V actively involved in motorsports. They have to reach out to young buyers.
5.Get the new 2008 Malibu and CTS to market before the end of May.
6. Import the Commadore SS and give it to Pontiac.