54.5 mpg target is off the table, U.S. regulators say Automotive News
By Sharon Silke Carty
July 18, 2016
Automakers have all the tools at their disposal to meet the 54.5 mpg corporate average fuel economy targets for the 2025 model year, but buyer preferences for SUVs and trucks make it likely that the industry will fall short of that number, U.S. regulators said in a report Monday.
Changing the target fuel economy figure reflects consumer demand, the alliance said. “The government is acknowledging the effect of factors like low gas prices on consumer sales, and the impact of consumer sales on those targets,” it said.
Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, said the auto industry has the power to shape consumer preferences through its advertising campaigns and could easily meet the 54.5 mpg target if it stopped aggressively marketing SUVs and trucks.
Let's be honest. This is the United States of America. Not Great Britain. Not Germany. Not Japan.
Our back roads and alleys are bigger than some of their main thoroughfares.
Our highways are bigger than they could dream.
And we as Americans just prefer bigger cars and trucks. Bigger and more powerful. Even when gas prices go up, we will still prefer bigger and more powerful cars than Europe or Japan.
I have a 2017 Camaro SS on order. I don't care if gas goes up to $4.00/gal, I'll enjoy my car. My other vehicle is a 2009 Honda Accord V6. Not the 4 cylinder. Never wanted to ever own a car with a 4 cylinder.
Forcing car companies to average 54 MPG is just insane. Like Bob Lutz once said: "it's like forcing people to lose weight by making a law that pants can only come in waist size 32 or smaller"
And we as Americans just prefer bigger cars and trucks. Bigger and more powerful. Even when gas prices go up, we will still prefer bigger and more powerful cars than Europe or Japan.
And your point is? Automakers today have the tools to meet these fuel economy targets without making vehicles smaller or less powerful. In fact to make a vehicle more fuel efficient sometimes it involves adding more power.
Personally I think CAFE is not the best way to go. Governments should add gas taxes equivalent to the costs of the subsidies that are given to the oil and gas industry and let the market decide.
Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, said the auto industry has the power to shape consumer preferences through its advertising campaigns and could easily meet the 54.5 mpg target if it stopped aggressively marketing SUVs and trucks.
I'm not clear on what the automakers are doing to aggressively market SUV's and Trucks, they aren't really doing anything they don't do with cars, that I can tell. Only big difference is that the automakers bake in a lot more pricing cushion into trucks so they can offer massive discounts and still make massive profits. In other words, I translate Dan Becker's words to mean, "price SUV's/Trucks so high no one will buy them". Big vehicles are what people want. Though with that said, I'm all for continued development of affordable ways to increase mpg's. 5 years from now as the fracking gluts clear, etc. we could be right back at $4 gas.
Dan Becker obviously has an agenda. From the article: "Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, said the auto industry has the power to shape consumer preferences through its advertising campaigns and could easily meet the 54.5 mpg target if it stopped aggressively marketing SUVs and trucks.
“There is no excuse not to improve efficiency and strengthen the standards,” Becker said. “We can’t accept backsliding or loopholes that undermine their success just to put more gas-guzzlers on the road.”
So Dan expects a for-profit, publicly-owned business to stop marketing high-profit trucks/SUVs and focus on low/negative-profit vehicles that consumers don't want? I don't understand how some people think...
Dan Becker, you can't force people to buy something. People are going to buy what fits their needs. Americans traditionally buy the largest vehicle that they can afford. It doesn't matter if you advertise the hell out of a Volt/Bolt/Prius/etc. With gas so cheap, and the economy in a more stable state than when the new CAFE was written. There's no way you will force people to buy something that they don't want. I just leased a truck yesterday. Why? Mainly because I need a vehicle that can fit 3 car seats and haul stuff on weekends. This is my first truck, I have always leased/bought a passenger car. It fits my needs. Try fitting 3 car seats in a Prius.. It's darn near impossible. I don't care how much they want to get to 54.5. It just isn't going to happen. I don't want to get political, but I don't care how much Tax Incentive they throw at a balsa wood tiny car, it doesn't fit my needs, so therefore, I won't buy it no matter the price. And that pretty much makes up the American market.
Congress lack of political will to do what needs to be done is the source of the problem.
Cars don't vote, so put the burden on cars and trucks, not people!
That's idiotic. We should continue to require less pollution from vehicles, but only in relation to what they cause in air pollution. Let polluters pay for their pollution!
A gas tax is the only approach that makes sense, including using those taxes to improve the roads and bridges.
I don't like taxes, but I dislike stupidity even more! And beyond that, politicians who won't do the right thing.
After the Volkswagen disaster and the recent fraudulent mileage claims put forward by other companies, it appears that someone in government is finally getting a clue as to how expensive it's getting to boost mileage while adding safety features also demanded by the government, to say nothing of the comfort and power demands people actually buying the things want.
I agree. Cars have gotten too expensive due to all these regulations. Sure, the technologies exist, but I don't want to drive a neutered car just to meet some federal mandate.
54-five? FIGHT! I say.
That was an absurd goal when set by the King and his Court, and it remains absurd. The makers most likely went along with it because the royal rulers would only have made things worse if they didn't kiss up.
Best hope is an administration that is not drunk on kool aid that will revisit those pie-in-the-sky numbers and adjust for a better orientation to reality.
We have seen the results of various makers trying to make the diesel emission numbers work.
The laws of physics and technology cannot be re-written in the capitol, no matter how many of the king's horses and and the king's men set to the task. Humpty Dumpty will fall.
Bringing a reality check up, eh? You are obviously a trouble-maker and you will be dealt with!
It is amazing to me how deep in the 1970s some people are stuck. The present 54.5 mpg goal was not passed by force or coercion. It was developed in cooperation between the Government and auto manufacturers. The goal is for the fleet average--not every single model--to reach that goal.
Also, the assumption is not that the goal will be met with petroleum-fueled vehicles exclusively. Quite the opposite is true. The goal will be met using a mix of petroleum and electric power plants. We see that in Europe, the petroleum fueled vehicle will soon comprise no part of the mix because they are set to be banned.
The 1970s are instructive in another way. Back then, American manufacturers moaned and groaned about CAFE. The Japanese simply went home, developed cars for the American market that complied with CAFE, and conquered the market. I hope that Americans don't use the relaxation of the 54.5 mpg standard to put themselves out of business.
It's still going to make the cars car people want more expensive than they need to be. Go ahead and sell all the hybrids, electrics, and hydrogen powered cars you want. But don't force the cars people want into the fleet average, and put the costs to develop these high tech cars on the burden of the people who want them.
I want V6 or V8 power. I want the LT1. If someone wants high tech no emission, let them pay for the privilege.
Are there any cars (non-hybrid or non-electric) hitting the 54.5mpg number now? 5.4mpg seemed unattainable at the time it was announced and it seems absurd now.
I highly doubt it. CAFE does use the old MPG rating system. So 54.5 probably equates to something closer to 45 mpg by the current rating system. What's does the best non-hybrid get? Maybe 30 combined? This would basically drive every vehicle to have some type of hybrid system. Or EVs would have to start flying off the lots with ~50% market share.
The trajectory of battery technology is such that its going to see more and more acceptance by mainstream consumers, and you know how good their "fuel economy" is. Add those to the fleet average and you can continue to build AND sell those LT1-powered Camaros.
I'm conflicted. I don't like taxes or tax credits, and I also think it's horrible for all the world's wealth going into a very unstable Middle East. The auto industry is going to make 54.5 with no problem, IMHO, and will still make the enthusiast crowd happy.
I believe the formula to be used for the 2025 CAFE standards is different than it was for 2014. You know, the apple and oranges sort of thing. It won't be as much of a stretch for the auto makers as the "numerical" standard suggest.
Good, glad to hear that reality has set in and they've learned that bureaucrats can't set some unreasonable expectation, then BAM, it happens... Laws of Thermodynamics and Energy be damned.
As said above, I don't think the manufacturers are sitting on some miracle formula to get 100 mpg or something insane like that. Haven't they been saying that since the 70's? "The government is hiding a secret engine that gets 100 mpg and runs on water maannnn. WATER!!!" The fact that automakers are doing crazy things like active shutters, and other highly technical things for a fraction of a MPG should say that they can't magically double the fleet MPG with the snap of a finger. There is profitability in having the most economical vehicle in each segment, if the capability was lurking deep in the engineering department, they'd use it.
Well.... maybe Mr, Becker and those politicos and such are finally coming to their senses and pulling their heads out of their arses. Just a thought and I highly doubt it too.
What countries are banning gas cars? Denmark? If it's just the sale, then people will take the short drive across the boarder to Germany to buy their cars just like they do now for all their other large purchases to avoid the high taxes. This will never happen in the USA. Our country is too big to rely solely on EVs.
Norway is considering joining Denmark. Paris has announced plans to ban and London have announced plans to consider a ban on diesel.
No where in my previous post did I say that the US would ban petroleum powered cars. The US has, however, agreed to dramatically improve fossil fuel economy. This improvement cannot be done using petroleum exclusively. EVs of various sorts must be in the mix.
It is also my position that it is the height of stupidity for American manufacturers to push diesel-powered cars into markets where they are about to be phased out by law. Cadillac would be much better served by revving-up production of PHEVs for its push into Europe. Lead the revolution rather than the counterrevolution.
The 54.5 CAFE law also includes a mid course review and correction, which is in another year or two. So the plan will be modified by reality, the reality that cheap gas and people preference for larger vehicles means that 54.5 is unrealistic.
My proposal is that we undertake a review of national pollution of all sources, not just cars. Includ utilities, which are major polluters. Then we need to develop a national energy policy, one based on reality, not politicians. Each segment of polluter should be responsible for their pollution.
When it's all said and done, gas taxes should go up to rebuild our roads and bridges, and perhaps develop low-cost mass transit in major cities that want it.
Instead we will do what the energy companies, who own politicians, want us to do.
Utility companies have been cutting emissions in a huge way because they are switching from coal to natural gas thanks to the economics of it. But the side benefit is you replace a very high polluting fossil with a much lower one. The government has helped nudge it along with more stringent coal emissions guidelines, but of course the coal lobby and 3 states pretty much call O the antichrist for working to eliminate an extremely dirty (not just CO2, but heavy metal contamination such as mercury) energy source with a much cleaner one. Never mind the economics will be in favor of natural gas for years to come thanks to fracking.
Now if we really want a solid national energy policy, lets start building some of the newer gen 3 nuclear reactors instead of maintaining a fleet that are almost all 30+ years old and an inferior design.
Becker is a typical liberal. Have Big Government dictate what people buy and punish or fine those who fail to fall in line. Hopefully this baloney will come to a screeching halt in January.
The EPA has not in any way relaxed the proposed standards that the various vehicle classes in the fleet are required to meet. All that has happened here is that EPA is acknowledging that, due to low gasoline prices the fleet mix will be more truck/SUV/CUV and less passenger car that they predicted when the rule was adopted. That change in the fleet mix will reduce the fleet average without any relaxation in the underlying standards. There is a mid-term review in process and it is safe to predict that there will be no significant relief.
My guess is that the 2025 deadline will be pushed back to 2030 or later, while slowing the increase rate over the longer period, effectively relaxing the standards while keeping the overall goal unchanged. And perhaps adding another review in 2022-24.
Predicting the future with certainty is iffy on a good day.
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