Source:
http://www.drive.com.au/Editorial/Ar...eID=19352&vf=3
Holden looks to a future without Commodore
Glenn Butler, drive.com.au, 18/08/06
Holden boss Denny Mooney says an Australian-built BMW 3 Series-size sedan could be the company's next big thing. GLENN BUTLER reports.
Could the Commodore's days as Holden's core product and Australia's best-selling car be numbered? Holden managing director Denny Mooney believes so, and it's a scenario for which Holden is already preparing.
Speaking exclusively to drive at the launch of the VE Commodore, Mooney said Holden's next-generation family sedan could be smaller and lighter, and powered by four- and six-cylinder engines.
It would be similar in size to the Torana TT36 hatch concept displayed at the Sydney motor show in 2005. And it could be a reality as early as 2010.
High fuel prices and the consumer swing towards smaller cars has put the concept of a mid-size rear-wheel drive sedan, first floated by Holden in early 2005, back on General Motors' agenda. And ironically, the VE Commodore – the most critically-acclaimed Commodore since the VB in 1978 – could very well be the victim of its own success.
"I've been saying for a long time that GM has to do a 3 Series sedan, one that is affordable. [And] as I think about Holden's manufacturing plant and our future model line-up I feel very strongly that having a car like that would be dynamite for us.
"I would be naïve to sit here and say 'Commodore will always be Holden's core product'," Mooney told drive. "I should give you that answer, but I'm telling you realistically that is a possibility that I wouldn't want to ignore."
Holden's Elizabeth manufacturing plant in South Australia builds around 140,000 Commodore sedans and derivatives per year for local sale and export. Holden employs 8300 workers directly, and indirectly provides jobs for more than 20,000 across Australia.
Mooney is keen to maintain Holden's manufacturing viability in the face of softening large car demand. And complementing – or supplanting - Commodore production with a smaller rear-drive sedan is what he calls his "insurance policy".
"We'll get feedback from the market here on [the VE Commodore] and we'll start to decide what we want to do next ... It'll probably be six to eight months then we'll start cracking on ... Trying to get momentum [within GM] around a smaller performance sedan may depend on what happens [with VE].
"You could say ten years from now it could become our core product. We could easily have a Vectra-size, rear-wheel drive performance sedan [as a Commodore replacement], or they could both be in the portfolio."
The vehicle would likely go up against the Honda Accord, Toyota Camry and Mazda6, and be powered by four- and six-cylinder engines. But not a V8.
"As soon as you start trying to put a V8 into [the requirements] the car starts to look a lot like the [VE Commodore]. So you do a four-cylinder and at a maximum a V6 and you get the packaging right. Remember we're not looking for big because we've already got big, but it's got to be a legitimate sedan."
It's clear Mooney's given this scenario more than just a passing thought.
"Yeah, there's development work going on."
The car is unlikely to share component sets with the VE Commodore because the platform VE is based on does not have the bandwidth to shrink to the vehicle size under consideration. That doesn't mean it can't be built in Australia. Far from it.
"Build it here? That's a possibility. Depending on how the market shifts, and if in five or six years we would have available capacity ... It depends on whether our plant is flat-out [building Commodores and derivatives] or not. If we have the capacity we would want to build it, for a variety of reasons.
He says Holden's production process already has the flexibility to make adding a second, smaller sedan alongside Commodore relatively easy.
"We have a body shop effectively split in half. Today we build all the VZ derivatives (Utes and wagons) in the south half of our body shop. All the VE Commodores are on the north side of the body shop. When we get done converting all our other body styles to VE, the south side of our body shop is basically not utilised.
"So, would I say we wouldn't potentially [build the car locally]? We might. I would look at that. I'm very interested in that."
But Mooney is adamant the vehicle's potential for Australia doesn't rest solely on local manufacture.
"I want the car whether we build it or not."
The idea of a small rear-wheel drive vehicle was floated by Holden with the Torana TT36 hatch concept in early 2005. Initially thought to give styling clues to the VE Commodore, the concept's true significance quickly emerged.
"[Torana] did what I wanted it to do, which was create more energy inside of General Motors about thinking about doing a car like that."
Now, it seems Torana is back on the agenda. Mooney believes North American acceptance of rear-wheel drive – crucial if the vehicle is to get the green light – is growing.
"I see a lot of opportunity for GM with a smaller rear-wheel drive performance sedan. I think it could be significant volume."
Enough volume to challenge best selling front-wheel drive models Toyota Camry and Honda Accord in North America?
"The problem in the 'States would be that in some parts of the country [where snow is an issue] you still have a problem selling rear-wheel drive. I personally think the ability to be successful in RWD is going to start to re-emerge in North America in volume."
Mooney says Holden may play a reduced role in developing the compact rear-wheel drive architecture, even though it effectively came up with the idea with the Torana concept, and VE has proved Holden's ability to build a world-class rear-wheel drive car.
"We just don't have enough resources. We just couldn't find enough engineers around here to do that. But that doesn't mean we couldn't pick up a derivative. We wouldn't own the underpinnings like we do with VE, but we could still pick them up and do the rest of the car here."
Whether the smaller rear-wheel drive concept replaces Commodore altogether or sits alongside it, one thing is for sure, says Mooney: " We're not going to go nine years before we re-do the Commodore".