Quote:
Originally Posted by neqqy
The economy does not follow a textbook supply versus demand model because the financial markets are manipulated. Regular gas prices will go back up into the three to four dollar range sooner than you think. In part due to OPEC but also because of increased taxation that will raise the price floor. Platform plans have to be made five to seven years out. In six years, gas will not be two dollars per gallon, I assure you. I am in touch with people in environmental groups and they are feeling highly empowered about change. Take that as a warning. Joe the plumber will just have to pack his smaller vehicle more efficiently before he drives to the job site.
I agree that the economy will probably continue to sputter for the next several years intermixed with brief uptrends. In the short term, oil prices will of course bottom out then normalize but even at $100 a barrel, our bi-partisan Congress was doing laughably little to encourage alternative fuel development. No petroleum alternatives are anywhere near developed enough to sustain global fuel demand anytime soon. It would take tremendous funding and research to find that solution, but money is instead being diverted to widen the income gap. With current prices, it is true that people are buying full-sized vehicles again but consumer spending/saving habits prove that the average American does not think about tomorrow. These same people will be crying big baby tears to the media when they again have to drop a Benjamin every time they top off their BOFV.
|
The environmental groups are forgeting one thing about change - everything they propose has to work perfectly and quickly since there are no scapegoats to pin "problems" on and higher taxes on gas will result in a depression in the world economy plain and simple and the "green movement" will end - quickly.
The problem with $100 a barrel oil is not the $4.00 a gallon gas - it is the $5.00 - $7.00 a gallon Milk, $5.00 a loaf of bread and the $6.00 a dozen eggs.
Companies held back these massive increases in basic food stuffs this last "oil bump" it will not happen next time, the "big baby tears" will be from starving babies and someone will have to answer for it.
We need a comprehensive 20 yeat energy policy starting with oil drilling and transitioning to over 50% renewables from U.S. based sources and even oil producing countries will support something along these lines because the "cheap oil" is going away and the world economies cannot transition fast enough or at a high enough volume to sustain $70+ barrel oil.
If the environmental groups want "change" that will work they need to accept drilling in the short term and create a viable transition plan to get to alternatives in the long term - there are no "silver bullets" and any successful plan will take 10-20 years to be fully implemented.
Back on topic, why is GM "moving" the Suburban to the Lambda when it already has the Traverse/Acadia/Enclave in the volume Tahoe/Yukon/Escalade/1500 Suburban slot?
The buyers that need a BOF SUV will still buy them but in much lower numbers, and with GMC/Cadillac sell in sufficient volume to justify keeping them on the GMT900/CX300 - in short the market will go back to the early 80's when the Minivan boom started and families will replace most BOF SUV's with Minivans and Mid (Equinox) and large (Traverse) Crossovers and some will move to small (HHR) crossovers and even wagons like the Insignia and Astra if GM would only offer them.