[zete]

The problem is the analysts and others assumed folks who had SUVs need SUV space, etc. That's simply not true. A lot of folks had SUVs but had no need for the space or towing capacity. It was just the "in" vehicle.

These self same people now are opting for sedans and coupes.

Who buys a crossover? Someone like myself who needs the space -- to haul around the kids and their friends and their gear. Once the kids no longer require mom and dad to chauffeur them around we'll be buying a sedan or, at most, a 5-seat crossover.

So what's happening is folks who had the big SUVs and didn't need them are bailing to sedans or coupes, and a few are going to smaller crossovers. Why this is a surprise eludes me as it only makes sense. But most folks who watch the auto industry seem surprised when anything happens. Sigh.

What they should be seeing is a few logical trends. I think those trends will be towards sedans that have a higher stance -- higher than typical sedans, lower than crossovers. Fuel economy will be of interest for at least another year or two, assuming no further oil shocks because within a year or two the current prices will be the new normal. They'll also want luxury accouterments in their vehicles -- especially the boomers. Plus, boomers and some of the younger generations will want "fun" cars. We can already see that with cars like the Mini but the Camaro and other cars should see a similar level of interest because boomers will be retiring or becoming empty nesters en masse soon and when they do they'll become even more focused on themselves and fulfilling dreams that were put on hold for a variety of reasons.

What do I think will hurt? SUVs and trucks, obviously, but also large luxury cars will also suffer. I think small and medium luxury cars will be in demand and niche cars will become very popular as folks try to differentiate themselves from one another. Remember, boomers used to mostly drive the same thing -- Chrysler minivans, Camrys, Accords, Impalas, etc. Now they're going to want to stand out but not pay some stupid price for it. Personally, I think part of the appeal of the Kappa twins is that they stand out and are affordable. All the automakers need to do more of that. But can they build sufficiently flexible platforms to create a variety of exterior designs in a cost effective way?

Some may say that this differentiation is egotistical and self-centered. All I'd say is "You've defined a boomer to a T". After all, boomers view themselves as having made the world we live in, rightly or wrongly.