[mobyss]

A quick rise to $7 per gallon over two years, which is up another 75% from the price today, would do two things:

#1. The gas mileage of the "fleet" of US vehicles that are actually used regularly would go from the current 15 or 16 mpg to closer to 28-30, with all the V8 powered pickup trucks sitting idle except for the time they are used AS TRUCKS to haul or tow something worthwhile. Sales of new trucks would dwindle to nothing. Demand for gasoline made from foreign oil would be reduced by 30% or more.

#2. A much larger portion of US farmland would be used to produce ethanol, from corn, switchgrass, or whatever. Food exports from the US would cease, meaning the whole world that relies on US food production would be SOL, and they would bid up the price of what food they can get. US dollars and other hard currencies held overseas would flood back to this country as foreign nations begged us to sell them something to feed their starving masses, and as we stop buying ANYTHING from them except whatever oil we still need. As ethanol replaced gasoline significantly, our demand for foreign oil would shrink by another 20 to 25% on top of the efficiency gains. Eventually the dollar would strengthen and the price of oil in dollars would drop, maybe by half or more as it has in the past. In 1998 oil was $12 a barrel, which is part of the reason we are in this mess today - we just got spoiled.

This is just my opinion, but there's a part of me that says "Go ahead world, ***** with America and see who it ultimately screws over the most in the end. We put a man on the frigging moon almost 40 years ago and most other countries can't even design a passenger jet that can fly over the Pacific ocean. Right now America is fat and lazy, but in a real crisis we will figure out a solution. And when it really comes down to it we can live with $7 gas and adjust painfully, but can the world live without US food? Not for very long.